Science blog

Los Angeles fires January 2025

2025 California wildfires: insights from ECMWF forecasts

On 7 January 2025, a series of devastating wildfires started in Los Angeles. ECMWF, which has been producing fire danger forecasts since 2018, has been exploring new approaches to fire forecasting in recent years.
Flooded rice plantation in the Pacific coast region near Guayaquil, Ecuador, in 2017

Forecasting extreme events in Ecuador

The challenge of forecasting extreme events across Ecuador is the focus for Angela Iza Wong, from the Ecuador Hydrometeorological Service, during her year at ECMWF as a WMO Fellow.
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Reflections on the 4th ESA-ECMWF Workshop on Machine Learning for Earth System Observation and Prediction

As one of the organisers of the joint ESA-ECMWF Workshop, Massimo Bonavita discusses some of the highlights and considers the future role of machine learning for weather and climate prediction.
Excerpt from figure 1 in the article showing different coloured squares denoting number of fires forecast or observed

Machine learning ignites wildfire forecasting

Joe McNorton reports on recent success in forecasting wildfires using machine learning at resolutions as high as 1 km and work to incorporate a wildfire component into ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System.
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Heat stress and the European heatwave of 2023

Claudia Di Napoli looks back at the extreme heat in parts of Europe this summer and describes her work to develop forecasts of heat stress and other weather-related health hazards.
2m temperature forecast 18 July 12UTC

European heatwave July 2023

Europe is experiencing some of the hottest temperatures of summer 2023 so far, with parts of Greece, eastern Spain, Sardinia, Sicily and southern Italy seeing temperatures above 45°C at the start of this week.
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The rise of machine learning in weather forecasting

ML-based weather prediction models have developed rapidly over the last year with exciting results. A group of our scientists discuss developments and their potential implications for the future.
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The strange phenomenon of large-scale cloud-clearing waves in the atmosphere

While looking at kilometre-scale simulations, Philippe Lopez and Inna Polichtchouk spotted unusual cloud-free areas in the tropics which also appeared in observations. Here they describe their investigation of this large-scale cloud-clearing wave phenomenon.
International Women's Day

One woman's journey to a career in Earth system modelling

To mark International Women’s Day, Birgit Sützl, an early career research scientist at ECMWF, shares her experiences of studying maths at university and her journey to find her perfect career path in Earth system modelling.
Male, Maldives

Maldives Meteorological Service and ECMWF collaborate through the WMO Fellowship Scheme

Ahmed Shabin from the Maldives Meteorological Service shares his plans for the year ahead at ECMWF as a WMO Fellow.
Illustration of the double penalty effect

Verifying high-resolution forecasts

Higher-resolution forecasts need different methods to assess their accuracy than lower-resolution forecasts. Thomas Haiden and Llorenç Lledó discuss some of their work in this field.
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EFAS kilometre-scale flood forecasting: hydrology meets computer science

Cinzia Mazzetti talks us through the upgrade of the European Flood Awareness System from 5 km to around 1.5 km, and how hydrologists, meteorologists and computer scientists are working together to achieve success.
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ECMWF Summer of Weather Code 2022

Now in its fifth year, ECMWF’s Summer of Weather Code continues to develop innovative software solutions which tackle a range of challenges in weather and climate, by bringing together external teams with ECMWF experts. Esperanza Cuartero and Julia Wagemann take us through this year’s projects.
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Progress in sub-seasonal forecasting of weather extremes

As their work under the EU-funded CAFE project draws to a close, ECMWF scientists Emmanuel Rouges and Nikolaos Mastrantonas highlight the progress they’ve achieved in forecasting extreme conditions over Europe at the challenging sub-seasonal timescale.
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Predicting the impact of new satellites on ECMWF’s forecasts

ECMWF’s Ensemble of Data Assimilations is providing a novel and efficient way to assess the impact of new satellite observations and to help inform the development of the Global Observing System. Sean Healy and Katrin Lonitz discuss some of the latest work.
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Radio Frequency Interference: an NWP perspective on the RFI 2022 workshop

Radio frequency interference poses serious risks to numerical weather prediction and other fields. Stephen English takes us through the key issues discussed at the RFI 2022 workshop on monitoring, mitigation, and management.
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ECMWF – a stimulating and diverse working environment

On International Women’s Day, ECMWF’s Director-General Florence Rabier discusses working in the diverse environment of ECMWF, in a field that has fascinated her since childhood.
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Secondment at ECMWF on the Maestro project

Over his nine-month secondment at ECMWF, Miloš Lompar from the Serbian Met Service worked with Domokos Sármány and others in Production Services as part of the Maestro project looking at novel technologies for data input/output – currently one of the major bottlenecks in ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System.
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Machine learning to emulate components of ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System

Matthew Chantry and Peter Dueben look at the expanding range of projects exploring the use of machine learning within the Centre’s forecasting system.