High resolution mean sea level pressure and ensemble spread

Thursday 23 November, 00 UTC T+96 Valid: Monday 27 November, 00 UTC

Ensemble forecasts explained
One 'ensemble forecast' consists of 51 separate forecasts made by the same computer model, all activated from the same starting time. The starting conditions for each member of the ensemble are slightly different, and physical parameter values used also differ slightly. The differences between these ensemble members tend to grow as the forecasts progress, that is as the forecast lead time increases.

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SCIENCE BLOG

Flooding in Europe, home page card

Improving forecasts of European flooding

At ECMWF our research aims to understand the characteristics of European floods, to develop effective flood forecasting tools and to work with users to ensure effective communication, planning and response.

16 November 2017

NEWS
NEWS

How to model convection and its impact on weather

Convection is one of the small-scale atmospheric processes at the heart of the workshop ‘Shedding light on the greyzone’ taking place at ECMWF from 13 to 16 November. Convection specialist Peter Bechtold explains why.

13 November 2017
IN FOCUS

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The ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) – applications and recent improvements

Managed by ECMWF on behalf of the EU, CAMS provides policy makers, businesses, scientists and the general public with reliable information about the composition of our atmosphere and how it is changing.

26 October 2017

Forecast charts and data

We provide current forecasts, climate reanalyses and specific datasets. These are available via the web, point-to-point dissemination, data servers and broadcasting.

ECMWF ensemble forecasts predicted the cut-off low that has caused extreme weather around the Mediterranean more than 2 weeks in advance.

Plot of the week

ECMWF ensemble forecasts predicted the cut-off low that has caused extreme weather around the Mediterranean more than 2 weeks in advance.

Datasets

Forecasts, analyses, climate re-analyses, reforecasts and multi-model data are available from our archive (MARS) or via dedicated data servers or via point-to-point dissemination.

Accessing forecasts

Researchers, WMO members, commercial users and satellite data providers can gain access to ECMWF forecast products under one of our various license agreement types.

Advancing weather science

Education is a key element of our work at ECMWF, enabling our partners to get the most from ECMWF's services and develop an advanced understanding of forecasting.

ECMWF lecture theatre

ECMWF workshops are open to the worldwide meteorological community, though some training is restricted to member states.