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Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Author

Shuyi Chen

Hannah Christensen

Brandon Kerns

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17045-predictability-and-model-uncertainty-mjo-convection-and-propagation-ecmwf-ifs-stochastic.pdf

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Author

Alessandro Dell’Aquila

Susanna Corti

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17046-model-uncertainty-representing-midlatitude-atmospheric-synoptic-variability-spectral.pdf

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Author

Pieter De Meutter

Johan Camps

Andy Delcloo

Piet Termonia

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17057-uncertainty-quantification-atmospheric-transport-and-dispersion-backtracking-using-ensemble.pdf

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Author

Peter Düben

Tim Palmer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17059-model-uncertainty-quantification-using-ultra-efficient-inexact-hardware.pdf

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Author

N. Gagnon

P.L. Houtekamer

X.-X. Deng

A. Erfani

M. Charron

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17062-review-perturbation-methods-meteorological-service-canada-msc-global-ensemble-prediction.pdf

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Author

Christina Klasa

Heini Wernli

Andre Walser

Marco Arpagaus

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17071-case-study-based-evaluation-stochastic-physics-effects-high-resolution-ensemble-cosmo-e.pdf

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Author

Chih-Hsin Li

Jing-Shan Hong

Xing-Qin Fang

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17072-evaluation-skebs-impact-wrf-based-mesoscale-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Author

Ekaterina Machulskaya

Richard Keane

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17073-representation-model-error-using-stochastic-equation-flow-dependent-spatial-and-temporal.pdf

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Author

Dave MacLeod

Hannah Cloke

Florian Pappenberger

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17074-perturbing-hydrology-parameters-seasonal-forecasts.pdf

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Author

Husain Najafi

Ali Bavani

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17075-bayesian-framework-design-quantifying-model-uncertainty-univariate-probabilistic-mixture-model.pdf

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

Author

Robert Plant

S.R.A. Dey

N.M. Roberts

S. Migliorini

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17076-assessing-spatial-precipitation-uncertainties-convective-scale-ensemble.pdf

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Author

Nigel Roberts

Seonaid Dey

Giovanni Leoncini

Robert Plant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17078-spatial-behaviour-and-evaluation-convection-permitting-ensemble.pdf

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

Author

Tobias Selz

George Craig

Lotte Bierdel

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17079-upscale-impact-diabatic-processes-convective-near-hemispheric-scale.pdf

NWP-driven fire danger forecasting for Copernicus

Author

Francesca Di Giuseppe

Florian Pappenberger

Fredrik Wetterhall

Blazej Krzeminski

J. San-Miguel-Ayanz

A. Camia

G. Libertà

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17204-nwp-driven-fire-danger-forecasting-copernicus.pdf

Diagnosing model performance in the tropics

Author

N. Žagar

M. Blaauw

B. Jesenko

L. Magnusson

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17205-diagnosing-model-performance-tropics.pdf

Use of high-density observations in precipitation verification

Author

Thomas Haiden

S. Duffy

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17251-use-high-density-observations-precipitation-verification.pdf

New model cycle brings higher resolution

Author

Elias Hólm

Richard Forbes

Simon Lang

L. Magnusson

S. Malardel

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17252-new-model-cycle-brings-higher-resolution.pdf

Reducing systematic errors in cold-air outbreaks

Author

Richard Forbes

Alan Geer

Katrin Lonitz

Maike Ahlgrimm

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17261-reducing-systematic-errors-cold-air-outbreaks.pdf

A new grid for the IFS

Author

S. Malardel

Nils Wedi

Willem Deconinck

Michail Diamantakis

Christian Kuehnlein

G. Mozdzynski

M. Hamrud

Piotr Smolarkiewicz

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17262-new-grid-ifs.pdf

ECMWF’s new data decoding software ecCodes

Author

Enrico Fucile

Sandor Kertész

S. Lamy-Thépaut

Shahram Najm

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17264-ecmwfs-new-data-decoding-software-eccodes.pdf

Using ensemble data assimilation to diagnose flow-dependent forecast reliability

Author

Mark Rodwell

2016, Newsletter Feature Article, ECMWF Newsletter

File

17263-using-ensemble-data-assimilation-diagnose.pdf

An adaptive additive inflation scheme for ensemble Kalman filters

Author

Matthias Sommer

Tijana Janjic

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16300-addaptive-additive-inflation-scheme-ensemble-kalman-filters.pdf

Impacts of a spatially varying random parameterscheme on cloud cover in MOGREPS

Author

Warren Tennant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16301-impacts-spatially-varying-random-parameterscheme-cloud-cover-mogreps.pdf

Development of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Global Ensemble Prediction System for Typhoon-track

Author

John Tseng

Jen-Her Chen

Deng-Shun Chen

Daryl Kleist

Wen-Mei Chen

Young-Sin Lai

Shu-Chih Yang

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16302-development-taiwan-central-weather-bureau-global-ensemble-prediction-system-typhoon-track.pdf

Search ECMWF publications

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Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

NWP-driven fire danger forecasting for Copernicus

Diagnosing model performance in the tropics

Use of high-density observations in precipitation verification

New model cycle brings higher resolution

Reducing systematic errors in cold-air outbreaks

A new grid for the IFS

ECMWF’s new data decoding software ecCodes

Using ensemble data assimilation to diagnose flow-dependent forecast reliability

An adaptive additive inflation scheme for ensemble Kalman filters

Impacts of a spatially varying random parameterscheme on cloud cover in MOGREPS

Development of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Global Ensemble Prediction System for Typhoon-track

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