Ensemble (ENS) of forecasts providing an estimate of the reliability of a single forecast.
ENS offers "High Frequency products" until step 144:
- 4 daily runs: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC
- hourly until step 90
- 3-hourly from 93 to 144
Most Post-processed Products are not available at 06/18 runs or in hourly steps. An exception are Tropical Cycle tracks (set III-viii) which is available for all daily runs: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.
The purchase of the "Basic Set" +72, +96, +120, +144, +168 hrs is a mandatory prerequisite for the purchase of time steps in the range 12 to 66 hours.
The following sub-sets are available from the ENS Model:
III-i: Atmospheric fields (direct model output)
These fields are provided in GRIB code.
- III-i-a Atmospheric fields - Single level
- III-i-b Atmospheric fields - Pressure levels
- III-i-c Atmospheric fields - Model Levels
- III-i-d: Probabilities - Averaged weather events - Pressure levels
III-ii: Clusters (post-processed products)
III-iii: Probabilities (post-processed products)
The products provide the probabilities of the occurrence of instantaneous and averaged or accumulated weather events at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form.
- III-iii-a Probabilities - Instantaneous weather events - Single level
- III-iii-b: Probabilities - Averaged weather events - Single level
- III-iii-c Probabilities - Instantaneous weather events - Pressure levels
- III-iii-d: Probabilities - Averaged weather events - Pressure levels
- III-iii-e: Probabilities - Daily weather events - Single level
- III-iii-f: Probabilities - Tropical cyclone probabilities
III-iv: Time series of weather parameters (post-processed products)
The products consist of values of the individual members of the real-time forecast at grid points (single locations). The products are provided in BUFR code.
III-v: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) (post-processed products)
The products provide the EFI and SOT of single level parameters calculated over 1, 3, 5 and 10-day ranges at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form
- III-v-a: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) 1-day ranges
- III-v-b: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) 3, 5 and 10-day
- III-v-c: Shift of Tails (SOT) 1-day ranges
- III-v-d: Shift of Tails (SOT) 3, 5 and 10-day ranges
III-vi: Ensemble means (post-processed products)
The fields are the means of the ensemble members at each forecast step. The fields are provided in GRIB code.
III-vii: Ensemble standard deviations (post-processed products)
The fields are the standard deviations of the ensemble members at each forecast step. The fields are provided in GRIB code.
III-viii: Tropical cyclones tracks (post-processed products)
Tropical cyclones tracks products are provided in BUFR code.
The tropical cyclone trajectories are computed independently for each ensemble member; a given tropical cyclone may dissipate at different times in different members so the number of members predicting a given tropical cyclone may vary through the forecast.
The purchase of the "Basic Set" (+72, +96, +120, +144, +168 hrs) is a mandatory prerequisite for the purchase of time steps in the range 12 to 66 hours.
Base times for direct model output products: 00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC and 18 UTC unless otherwise specified.
dissemination data stream indicator = E)
| Info |
Based Forecast Time 06UTC Time Available |
Based Forecast time 12UTC Time Available |
Based Forecast Time 18UTC Time Available |
Based Forecast time 00UTC Time Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast Day 0 | 12:40 | 18:40 | 00:40 | 06:40 |
| Forecast Day 1 | 12:44 | 18:44 | 00:44 | 06:44 |
| Forecast Day 2 | 12:48 | 18:48 | 00:48 | 06:48 |
| Forecast Day 3 | 12:52 | 18:52 | 00:52 | 06:52 |
| Forecast Day 10 | 19:20 | 07:20 | ||
| Forecast Day 15 | 19:40 | 07:40 | ||
| Derived products Step 0 to 240 | 19:41 | 07:41 | ||
| Derived products Step 246 to 360 | 20:01 | 08:01 |
All tables are sortable by column. Use your browser to search for specific parameters.
| Info | Terms conventions |
|---|---|
| (inv) | Invariant field. |
III-i: Atmospheric model
| Product resolution | |
| T+0h to T+360h |
|
| Info | Forecast time step | Base Time |
| T+0h to T+90h | Hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+93h to T+144h | 3-hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+150h to T+360h | 6-hourly | 00/12 UTC |
All parameters are provided at 1000, 925, 850, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 70, 50, 30, 10, 7, 5, 3, 2, 1 hPa unless otherwise specified.
| Info | Forecast time step | Base Time |
| T+0h to T+90h | Hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+93h to T+144h | 3-hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+150h to T+360h | 6-hourly | 00/12 UTC |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| strf | 1 | Stream function | m**2 s**-1 |
Only available for pressure level 200 |
| vp | 2 | Velocity potential | m**2 s**-1 |
Only available for pressure level 200 |
| pv | 60 | Potential vorticity | K m**2 kg**-1 s**-1 | |
| z | 129 | Geopotential | m**2 s**-2 | |
| t | 130 | Temperature | K | |
| u | 131 | U component of wind | m s**-1 | |
| v | 132 | V component of wind | m s**-1 | |
| q | 133 | Specific humidity | kg kg**-1 | |
| w | 135 | Vertical velocity | Pa s**-1 | |
| vo | 138 | Vorticity (relative) | s**-1 | |
| lnsp | 152 | Logarithm of surface pressure | ~ |
Only available for pressure level 1000 |
| d | 155 | Divergence | s**-1 | |
| gh | 156 | Geopotential Height | gpm | |
| r | 157 | Relative humidity | % | |
| o3 | 203 | Ozone mass mixing ratio | kg kg**-1 |
Model level parameters are produced in GRIB2 format.
Model level parameters are available from T+0h to T+168 unless otherwise specified.
| Info | Forecast time step | Base time |
|---|---|---|
| T+0 to T+90 | hourly | 00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+90 to T+144 | 3-hourly |
00/06/12/18 UTC |
| T+150 to T+168 | 6-hourly | 00/12 UTC |
| T+168 to T+360 |
6-hourly Available only for specified parameters only (see table below) |
00/12 UTC |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crwc | 75 | Specific rain water content | kg kg**-1 | |
| cswc | 76 | Specific snow water content | kg kg**-1 | |
| z | 129 | Geopotential | m**2 s**-2 |
Up to T+360 Level 1 only |
| t | 130 | Temperature | K | Level 1 only |
| u | 131 | U component of wind | m s**-1 | Level 1 only |
| v | 132 | V component of wind | m s**-1 | Level 1 only |
| q | 133 | Specific humidity | kg kg**-1 | Level 1 only |
| w | 135 | Vertical velocity | Pa s**-1 | |
| vo | 138 | Vorticity (relative) | s**-1 | |
| lnsp | 152 | Logarithm of surface pressure | ~ |
Up to T+360 Level 1 only |
| d | 155 | Divergence | s**-1 | |
| gh | 156 | Geopotential Height | gpm |
Up to T+360 Level 1 only |
| o3 | 203 | Ozone mass mixing ratio | kg kg**-1 | |
| clwc | 246 | Specific cloud liquid water content | kg kg**-1 | |
| ciwc | 247 | Specific cloud ice water content | kg kg**-1 | |
| cc | 248 | Fraction of cloud cover | (0 - 1) |
|
Up to T+360 Level 1 only |
|
Up to T+360 Level 1 only |
|
Up to T+360 |
|
Up to T+360 |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pt | 3 | Potential temperature | K | |
| pres | 54 | Pressure | Pa | |
| z | 129 | Geopotential | m**2 s**-2 | |
| u | 131 | U component of wind | m s**-1 | |
| v | 132 | V component of wind | m s**-1 | |
| q | 133 | Specific humidity | kg kg**-1 | |
| gh | 156 | Geopotential Height | gpm | |
| o3 | 203 | Ozone mass mixing ratio | kg kg**-1 |
This product is coded using local definition 32
Product resolution
- 1.5° x 1.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
| Forecast time step | Forecast ranges |
|---|---|
| T+72 to T+360 | 12-hourly |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gh | 156 | Geopotential Height | gpm | H: European Area (70° N, 20° W, 30° N, 40° E) |
| Product resolution |
|---|
|
Probabilities -Instantaneous weather events
| Forecast steps | Forecasts ranges |
|---|---|
| T+24h to T+360h |
24-hourly |
III-iii-a Probabilities -Instantaneous weather events - Single level
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10spg10 | 131068 | 10 metre Wind speed of at least 10 m/s | % | |
| 10spg15 | 131069 | 10 metre Wind speed of at least 15 m/s | % | |
| 2tl273 | 131073 | 2 metre temperature less than 273.15 K | % |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| tpl01 | 131064 | Total precipitation less than 0.1 mm | % | |
| tprl1 | 131065 | Total precipitation rate less than 1 mm/day | % | |
| tprg3 | 131066 | Total precipitation rate of at least 3 mm/day | % | |
| tprg5 | 131067 | Total precipitation rate of at least 5 mm/day | % | |
| 10fgg15 | 131070 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 15 m/s | % | |
| 10fgg20 | 131071 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 20 m/s | % | |
| 10fgg25 | 131072 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 25 m/s | % | |
| 10fgg10 | 131100 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | % | |
| 2tl273 | 131073 | 2 metre temperature less than 273.15 K | % |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| talm8 | 131022 | Temperature anomaly less than -8 K | % | |
| talm4 | 131023 | Temperature anomaly less than -4 K | % | |
| tag4 | 131024 | Temperature anomaly greater than +4 K | % | |
| tag8 | 131025 | Temperature anomaly greater than +8 K | % | |
| ptsa_gt_1stdev | 133093 | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1 standard deviation | % | |
| ptsa_gt_1p5stdev | 133094 | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviation | % | |
| ptsa_gt_2stdev | 133095 | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 2 standard deviation | % | |
| ptsa_lt_1stdev | 133096 | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1 standard deviation | % | |
| ptsa_lt_1p5stdev | 133097 | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviation | % | |
| ptsa_lt_2stdev | 133098 | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -2 standard deviation | % |
| Info | Forecasts step & ranges |
|---|---|
| 2-day period | T+120-168 |
| 3-day period | T+168-240 |
| 5-day period | T+120-240 T+240-360 |
III-iii-d:Probabilities - Averaged weather events - Pressure levels
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| talm2 | 131020 | Temperature anomaly less than -2 K | % | |
| tag2 | 131021 | Temperature anomaly of at least +2 K | % |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| tpg1 | 131060 | Total precipitation of at least 1 mm | % | |
| tpg5 | 131061 | Total precipitation of at least 5 mm | % | |
| tpg10 | 131062 | Total precipitation of at least 10 mm | % | |
| tpg20 | 131063 | Total precipitation of at least 20 mm | % | |
| 10fgg15 | 131070 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 15 m/s | % | |
| 10fgg20 | 131071 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 20 m/s | % | |
| 10fgg25 | 131072 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 25 m/s | % | |
| tpg100 | 131085 | Total precipitation of at least 100 mm | % | |
| tpg25 | 131098 | Total precipitation of at least 25 mm | % | |
| tpg50 | 131099 | Total precipitation of at least 50 mm | % | |
| 10fgg10 | 131100 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | % |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pts | 131089 | Probability of a tropical storm | % | |
| ph | 131090 | Probability of a hurricane | % | |
| ptd | 131091 | Probability of a tropical depression | % |
The products consist of values of the individual members of the real-time forecast at grid points (single locations). The products are provided in BUFR code.
| Forecast steps | Product resolution |
|---|---|
|
T+0h to T+360h at 6-hour intervals |
|
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mx2t6 | 121 | Maximum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours | K | |
| mn2t6 | 122 | Minimum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours | K | |
| 10fg6 | 123 | 10 metre wind gust in the last 6 hours | m s**-1 | |
| sf | 144 | Snowfall | m of water equivalent | |
| msl | 151 | Mean sea level pressure | Pa | |
| tcc | 164 | Total cloud cover | (0 - 1) | |
| 10u | 165 | 10 metre U wind component | m s**-1 | |
| 10v | 166 | 10 metre V wind component | m s**-1 | |
| 2t | 167 | 2 metre temperature | K | |
| 2d | 168 | 2 metre dewpoint temperature | K | |
| lsm | 172 | Land-sea mask | (0 - 1) | |
| tp | 228 | Total precipitation | m |
The products provide the EFI and SOT of single level parameters calculated over 1, 3, 5 and 10-day ranges at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form..
Product resolution: 0.1° x 0.1° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
|
00z
|
12z
|
|
|---|---|---|
| 1-day ranges |
00Z: 00-24, 24-48, 48-72, 72-96, 96-120, 120-144, 144-168
|
12Z: 12-36, 36-60, 60-84, 84-108, 108-132, 132-156, 156-180
|
| 3-day ranges |
00Z: 00-72, 24-96, 48-120, 72-144, 96-168, 120-192, 144-216
|
12Z: 12-84, 36-108, 60-132, 84-156, 108-180, 132-204, 156-228
|
| 5-day ranges |
00Z: 00-120, 24-144, 48-168, 72-192, 96-216
|
12Z: 12-132, 36-156, 60-180, 84-204, 108-228
|
| 10-day ranges |
00Z: 00-240
|
12Z: 00-240
|
III-v-a: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) 1-day ranges
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| capesi | 132044 | Convective available potential energy shear index | (-1 to 1) | |
| wvfi | 132045 | Water vapour flux index | dimensionless | |
| 10fgi | 132049 | 10 metre wind gust index | (-1 to 1) | |
| capei | 132059 | Convective available potential energy index | (-1 to 1) | |
| sfi | 132144 | Snowfall index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 10wsi | 132165 | 10 metre speed index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 2ti | 132167 | 2 metre temperature index | (-1 to 1) | |
| mx2ti | 132201 | Maximum temperature at 2 metres index | (-1 to 1) | |
| mn2ti | 132202 | Minimum temperature at 2 metres index | (-1 to 1) | |
| tpi | 132228 | Total precipitation index | (-1 to 1) |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wvfi | 132045 | Water vapour flux index | dimensionless | |
| sfi | 132144 | Snowfall index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 10wsi | 132165 | 10 metre speed index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 2ti | 132167 | 2 metre temperature index | (-1 to 1) | |
| tpi | 132228 | Total precipitation index | (-1 to 1) |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| capesi | 132044 | Convective available potential energy shear index | (-1 to 1) | |
| wvfi | 132045 | Water vapour flux index | dimensionless | |
| 10fgi | 132049 | 10 metre wind gust index | (-1 to 1) | |
| capei | 132059 | Convective available potential energy index | (-1 to 1) | |
| sfi | 132144 | Snowfall index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 10wsi | 132165 | 10 metre speed index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 2ti | 132167 | 2 metre temperature index | (-1 to 1) | |
| mx2ti | 132201 | Maximum temperature at 2 metres index | (-1 to 1) | |
| mn2ti | 132202 | Minimum temperature at 2 metres index | (-1 to 1) | |
| tpi | 132228 | Total precipitation index | (-1 to 1) |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wvfi | 132045 | Water vapour flux index | dimensionless | |
| sfi | 132144 | Snowfall index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 10wsi | 132165 | 10 metre speed index | (-1 to 1) | |
| 2ti | 132167 | 2 metre temperature index | (-1 to 1) | |
| tpi | 132228 | Total precipitation index | (-1 to 1) |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| msl | 151 | Mean sea level pressure | Pa | |
| 2t | 167 | 2 metre temperature | K | |
| 10si | 207 | 10 metre wind speed | m s**-1 | |
| 100si | 228249 | 100 metre wind speed | m s**-1 |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ws | 10 | Wind speed | m s**-1 | |
| t | 130 | Temperature | K | |
| gh | 156 | Geopotential Height | gpm |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| msl | 151 | Mean sea level pressure | Pa | |
| 2t | 167 | 2 metre temperature | K | |
| 10si | 207 | 10 metre wind speed | m s**-1 | |
| 100si | 228249 | 100 metre wind speed | m s**-1 |
| Short Name | ID | Long Name | Units | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ws | 10 | Wind speed | m s**-1 | |
| t | 130 | Temperature | K | |
| gh | 156 | Geopotential Height | gpm |
Tropical cyclones tracks are provided in BUFR code. They are composed of 52 trajectories corresponding to:
- the 50 perturbed forecasts from ENS (Ensemble Member numbers 1 to 50 in BUFR)
- the control forecast from ENS (Ensemble Member number 51 in BUFR)
- the HRES forecast (Ensemble Member number 52 in BUFR)
The tropical cyclone trajectories are computed independently for each ensemble member; a given tropical cyclone may dissipate at different times in different members so the number of members predicting a given tropical cyclone may vary through the forecast.
Observed (existing cyclones) and genesis (created by the forecast).
| Short name | Long name | Description | Unit | Additional information |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TC | Tropical Cyclone | BUFR, now available for base times 00/06/12/18 |
Last updated 22-10-2020