ENSEMBLES

The EU-funded  ENSEMBLES project intends to develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales. A large set of seasonal, annual and decadal hindcasts is available which have been produced with different forecast systems run by ECMWF, Météo-France, Met Office, IfM, INGV and CERFACS. These systems addressed the important problem of the impact of model uncertainty on forecast error by using the multi-model, stochastic physics and perturbed parameters approaches.