Sarah-Jane Lock works in the Model Uncertainty Team. She maintains and develops the stochastic representations of model uncertainty, which form part of the forecast and assimilation systems.
- Stochastic representations of model uncertainty, e.g. the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme, the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrizations (SPP) scheme
- Bringing greater physical consistency to model uncertainty representations
- Exploring sources of model uncertainty across the forecasting system: atmospheric physics, atmospheric dynamics, coupled processes
- Numerical methods for atmospheric models, e.g. time-integration methods
Education
PhD (2008), "Development of a new numerical model for studying microscale atmospheric dynamics"; Institute for Climate & Atmospheric Science (ICAS), University of Leeds, UK; Supervisors: Alan Gadian, Alison Coals
MSci Theoretical Physics (I) (1999); Queen Mary, University of London, UK
Professional
2013 -- present: Scientist, Research Department, ECMWF
2011 -- 2012: Post-Doctoral Research Assistant (Co-PI), ICAS, University of Leeds, UK; Gung-Ho project (with UK Met Office)
2008 -- 2010: Post-Doctoral Research Assistant, ICAS, University of Leeds, UK; COPS project
1999 -- 2004: Assistant Statistician, Department for Education & Skills, UK
Member of Royal Meteorological Society & Institute of Physics
- 2025
- (April 2025) Demonstration of a Cut-Cell Representation of 3D Orography for Studies of Atmospheric Flows over Very Steep Hills. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00069.1
- (April 2025) Initiation of convection over the Black Forest mountains during COPS IOP15a. DOI: 10.1002/qj.760
- 2024
- Martin Leutbecher, Simon Lang, Sarah-Jane Lock, Chris Roberts, Aristofanis Tsiringakis (April 2024) Improving the physical consistency of ensemble forecasts by using SPP in the IFS, ECMWF. DOI: 10.21957/mlz238dk1p
- 2023
- David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, Priyanka Yadav (March 2023) Intrinsic Predictability Limits arising from Indian Ocean MJO Heating: Effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-493
- David Martin Straus, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Sarah-Jane Lock, Franco Molteni, Priyanka Yadav (November 2023) Intrinsic predictability limits arising from Indian Ocean Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) heating: effects on tropical and extratropical teleconnections, Weather and Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-4-1001-2023
- 2021
- Linus Magnusson, Sharanya Majumdar, Rebecca Emerton, David Richardson, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Calum Baugh, Peter Bechtold, Jean Bidlot, Antonino Bonanni, Massimo Bonavita, Niels Bormann, Andy Brown, Philip Browne, Hilda Carr, Mohamed Dahoui, Giovanna De Chiara, Michail Diamantakis, David I. Duncan, Stephen English, Richard Forbes, Alan Geer, Thomas Haiden, Sean Healy, Timothy Hewson, Bruce Ingleby, Martin Janousek, Christian Kühnlein, Simon Lang, Sarah-Jane Lock, Tony McNally, Kristian S. Mogensen, Florian Pappenberger, Inna Polichtchouk, Fernando Prates, Christel Prudhomme, Florence Rabier, Patricia de Rosnay, Tiago Quintino, Michael Rennie (October 2021) Tropical cyclone activities at ECMWF, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 888. DOI: 10.21957/zzxzzygwv
- Simon T. K. Lang, Sarah‐Jane Lock, Martin Leutbecher, Peter Bechtold, Richard M. Forbes (January 2021) Revision of the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisations model uncertainty scheme in the Integrated Forecasting System, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3978
- 2019
- (July 2019) Current and Emerging Time-Integration Strategies in Global Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction, Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering. DOI: 10.1007/s11831-018-9261-8
- Sarah‐Jane Lock, Simon T. K. Lang, Martin Leutbecher, Robin J. Hogan, Frederic Vitart (September 2019) Treatment of model uncertainty from radiation by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme and associated revisions in the ECMWF ensembles, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3570
- Andreas Müller, Willem Deconinck, Christian Kühnlein, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Michael Lange, Nils Wedi, Peter Bauer, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz, Michail Diamantakis, Sarah-Jane Lock, Mats Hamrud, Sami Saarinen, George Mozdzynski, Daniel Thiemert, Michael Glinton, Pierre Bénard, Fabrice Voitus, Charles Colavolpe, Philippe Marguinaud, Yongjun Zheng, Joris Van Bever, Daan Degrauwe, Geert Smet, Piet Termonia, Kristian P. Nielsen, Bent H. Sass, Jacob W. Poulsen, Per Berg, Carlos Osuna, Oliver Fuhrer, Valentin Clement, Michael Baldauf, Mike Gillard, Joanna Szmelter, Enda O'Brien, Alastair McKinstry, Oisín Robinson, Parijat Shukla, Michael Lysaght, Michał Kulczewski, Milosz Ciznicki, Wojciech Piątek, Sebastian Ciesielski, Marek Błażewicz, Krzysztof Kurowski, Marcin Procyk, Pawel Spychala, Bartosz Bosak, Zbigniew P. Piotrowski, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, Erwan Raffin, Cyril Mazauric, David Guibert, Louis Douriez, Xavier Vigouroux, Alan Gray, Peter Messmer, Alexander J. Macfaden, Nick New (October 2019) The ESCAPE project: Energy-efficient Scalable Algorithms for Weather Prediction at Exascale, Geoscientific Model Development n. 10, pp. 4425-4441. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-4425-2019
- Andreas Müller, Willem Deconinck, Christian Kühnlein, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Michael Lange, Nils Wedi, Peter Bauer, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz, Michail Diamantakis, Sarah-Jane Lock, Mats Hamrud, Sami Saarinen, George Mozdzynski, Daniel Thiemert, Michael Glinton, Pierre Bénard, Fabrice Voitus, Charles Colavolpe, Philippe Marguinaud, Yongjun Zheng, Joris Van Bever, Daan Degrauwe, Geert Smet, Piet Termonia, Kristian P. Nielsen, Bent H. Sass, Jacob W. Poulsen, Per Berg, Carlos Osuna, Oliver Fuhrer, Valentin Clement, Michael Baldauf, Mike Gillard, Joanna Szmelter, Enda O'Brien, Alastair McKinstry, Oisín Robinson, Parijat Shukla, Michael Lysaght, Michał Kulczewski, Milosz Ciznicki, Wojciech Pia̧tek, Sebastian Ciesielski, Marek Błażewicz, Krzysztof Kurowski, Marcin Procyk, Pawel Spychala, Bartosz Bosak, Zbigniew Piotrowski, Andrzej Wyszogrodzki, Erwan Raffin, Cyril Mazauric, David Guibert, Louis Douriez, Xavier Vigouroux, Alan Gray, Peter Messmer, Alexander J. Macfaden, Nick New (January 2019) The ESCAPE project: Energy-efficient Scalable Algorithms for Weather Prediction at Exascale. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2018-304
- 2017
- H. M. Christensen, S.‐J. Lock, I. M. Moroz, T. N. Palmer (July 2017) Introducing independent patterns into the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3075
- Martin Leutbecher, Sarah‐Jane Lock, Pirkka Ollinaho, Simon T. K. Lang, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Massimo Bonavita, Hannah M. Christensen, Michail Diamantakis, Emanuel Dutra, Stephen English, Michael Fisher, Richard M. Forbes, Jacqueline Goddard, Thomas Haiden, Robin J. Hogan, Stephan Juricke, Heather Lawrence, Dave MacLeod, Linus Magnusson, Sylvie Malardel, Sebastien Massart, Irina Sandu, Piotr K. Smolarkiewicz, Aneesh Subramanian, Frédéric Vitart, Nils Wedi, Antje Weisheimer (July 2017) Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3094
- Pirkka Ollinaho, Sarah‐Jane Lock, Martin Leutbecher, Peter Bechtold, Anton Beljaars, Alessio Bozzo, Richard M. Forbes, Thomas Haiden, Robin J. Hogan, Irina Sandu (January 2017) Towards process‐level representation of model uncertainties: stochastically perturbed parametrizations in the ECMWF ensemble, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 702, pp. 408-422. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2931
- I. Polichtchouk, Robin Hogan, T.G. Shepherd, Peter Bechtold, Timothy Stockdale, S. Malardel, Sarah-Jane Lock, Linus Magnusson (April 2017) What influences the middle atmosphere circulation in the IFS?, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 809. DOI: 10.21957/mfsnfv15o
- 2016
- Martin Leutbecher, Sarah-Jane Lock, P. Ollinaho, S.T.K. Lang, al et (April 2016) Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: State of the art and future vision, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 785. DOI: 10.21957/db1w1xzch
- P. Ollinaho, Sarah-Jane Lock, Martin Leutbecher, Peter Bechtold, Anton Beljaars, Alessio Bozzo, R.M. Forbes, Thomas Haiden, Robin Hogan, irina sandu (April 2016) Towards process-level representation of model uncertainties: Stochastically perturbed parameterisations in the ECMWF ensemble, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 784. DOI: 10.21957/jjk9l5yy
- 2014
- (April 2014) Performance of the cut-cell method of representing orography in idealized simulations, Atmospheric Science Letters.
- (April 2014) Numerical analyses of Runge--Kutta implicit--explicit schemes for horizontally explicit, vertically implicit solutions of atmospheric models, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
- 2013
- (April 2013) Runge--Kutta IMEX schemes for the horizontally explicit/vertically implicit (HEVI) solution of wave equations, Journal of Computational Physics.