ECMWF | Reading | 5-8 September 2016
Earth system modelling for seamless prediction: On which processes should we focus to further improve atmospheric predictive skill?
The main themes of the 2016 ECMWF Annual Seminar were what Earth system processes are needed, and what level of complexity is required to further extend atmospheric predictive skill. These themes were discussed taking into account the ECMWF strategy for the next 10 years, which sees Earth system modelling and assimilation as the way to improve further skill in the 1-day to 1-year forecast range covered by the ECMWF forecasts. The key questions that speakers tackled while presenting progress and challenges in different areas of Earth system modelling are: if we want to improve the skill of weather predictions, on which of the already-simulated processes should we focus? If we introduce new processes, how much complexity is actually required?
These questions were discussed from both a ‘foundation’ and an ‘implementation’ point of view. Foundation aspects of Earth system modelling that are going to be reviewed beyond atmospheric processes include the benefits of eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean models, development and initialization of multi-category sea-ice models, inclusion of high-resolution information on land use (including urban environment) in surface models, progress in aerosol and ozone modelling, development of coupling interfaces for massively parallel platforms. Implementation and seamless aspects that were discussed included system design and coupling strategies in forecasting and initialisation, including reanalyses.
Seminar aims
The seminar is part of ECMWF's educational programme and was aimed at young scientists but also more established scientists that want to engage more with the challenges of Earth system modelling for seamless prediction.
Presentations and recordings
Monday 5 September
| Presentation | Recording | |
|---|---|---|
|
Welcome and opening |
 |
 |
|
Do we need an Earth-system model for 1-day to 1-year weather prediction? |
|
|
| Complexity in sub-seasonal prediction Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) |
|
|
| How much complexity is needed for seasonal to inter-annual prediction? Benjamin Kirtman (RMAS/MPO, University of Miami) |
|
|
| Trading complexity for resolution Tim Palmer (Oxford University and ECMWF Fellow) |
|
|
Tuesday 6 September
| Presentation | Recording | |
|---|---|---|
| Advanced numerical methods for Earth-System Modelling Nils Wedi (ECMWF) |
|
|
| How much do cloud errors matter in coupled modelling? Brian Medeiros (NCAR) |
|
|
| Tropical variability and links with predictability Steve Woolnough (University of Reading) |
|
|
| Atmospheric resolution and scales’ interactions Franco Molteni (ECMWF) |
|
|
| The role of stratospheric processes in large-scale tele-connections Judith Perlwitz (CIRES/NOAA) |
|
|
| The role of the ocean on predictability of weather and climate David Ferreira (University of Reading) |
|
Wednesday 7 September
| Presentation | Recording | |
|---|---|---|
| Ocean resolution: how coarse can it be? Helene Hewitt (Met Office) |
|
|
| Air-sea interactions in Earth-system modelling Jean Bidlot (ECMWF) |
|
|
| Sea-ice role in Earth-system models Sylvain Bouillon (NERSC) |
|
|
| On the relative impact of continental surfaces in coupled Earth System Modelling Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF) |
|
|
| Contribution of land surface states to sub-seasonal predictability Randal Koster (NASA) |
|
|
| Carbon cycle Anna Agusti-Panareda (ECMWF) |
|
|
Thursday 8 September
| Presentation | Recording | |
|---|---|---|
| The role of atmospheric composition in earth system modelling for NWP Daniel Jacob (Harvard University and ECMWF Fellow) |
|
|
| Aerosol model complexity and its implications for predictability and short-term forecasting Peter Colarco (NASA) |
|
|
| Ozone: do we need to simulate it? Johannes Flemming (ECMWF) |
|
|
| Earth-system modelling and assimilation at ECMWF Patrick Laloyaux (ECMWF) |
|
|
| The NCEP experience in Earth-system modelling Hendrik Tolman (NWS) |
|
|
| Environmental Prediction at CCMEP Gregory Smith (CCMEP) |
|
|
| Seminar closure Roberto Buizza (ECMWF) |
|
|
Organising committee
Roberto Buizza, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, Patricia de Rosnay, Richard Engelen, Laura Ferranti, Irina Sandu and Tim Stockdale.