W. Bourke* - R. Buizza** - M. Naughton*

*: Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

**: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

The performance of two Ensemble Prediction Systems, that of the European Center for Medium-Range (EC-EPS) and that of the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BM-EPS) are compared over the Southern Hemisphere annulus (20-60 degrees South) and over the Australian Region. Ten day ensemble forecasts for 152 daily cases (from 2 April to 31 August 2001) of 500 hPa geopotential height are examined.

A comprehensive set of verification measures documents the different spread and skill characteristics of the BM- and EC-EPS. Overall, EC-EPS deterministic (i.e. unperturbed control) products and the probabilistic ensemble based products are more skillful than the corresponding BM-EPS products. The utility of the BM-EPS for the Australian region in indicated.

Bourke, W., Buizza, R., & Naughton, M., 2004: Performance of the ECMWF and the BoM Ensemble Systems in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2338-2357.