Publications in International Journals

Abstracts of printed and in-press articles can be accessed by clicking on the reference. Publications are listed in reverse order by publication year:

• 2012
• 2011
• 2010
• 2009
• 2008
• 2007
• 2006
• 2005
• 2004
• 2003
• 2002
• 2001
• 2000
• 1999
• 1998
• 1997
• 1996
• 1995
• 1994
• 1993
• 1992

2012

• (98) Hagedorn, R., Buizza, R., Hamill, M. T., Leutbecher, M., & Palmer, T. N., 2012: Comparing TIGGE multi-model forecasts with re-forecast calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., in press.

• (97) Cardinali, C., Radnoti, G., Zagar, N., & Buizza, R., 2012: Representing model error in Ensemble Data Assimilation. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., under revision.

• (96) Pappenberger, F., & Buizza, R., 2012: The Probability Forecast Convergence Score (pFCS). Mon. Wea. Rev., under revision.

2011

• (95) Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J., Buizza, R., Cavaleri, L., & Janousek, M., 2011: Deterministic and ensemble-based prediction of Adriatic-Sea sirocco storms leading to 'acqua alta' in Venice. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., in press, DOI 10.1002/qj.861.

• (94) Voisin, N., Pappenberger, F., Lettenmaier, D. P., Buizza, R., & Schaake, J. C., 2011: Application of a medium-range global hydrological probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin. Weather & Forecasting, in press, DOI 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05032.

• (93) Buizza, R., 2011: Reply to Bob Glahn's "Comments on 'The value of a variable resolution approach to numerical weather prediction"'. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2302-2306.

• (92) Prates, F., & Buizza, R., 2011: Probabilistic forecast products based on generalized extreme-value theory. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 521-537.

• (91) Bauer, P., Buizza, R., Cardinali, C., Thepaut, J.-N., 2011: Impact of singular vector based satellite data thinning on NWP. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 286-302.

2010

• (90) Buizza, R., 2010: Horizontal resolution impact on short- and long-range forecast error. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1020-1035.

• (89) Buizza, R., 2010: The Value of a Variable Resolution Approach to Numerical Weather Prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 138, 4, 1026-1042.

• (88) Cavaleri, L., Bertotti, L., Buizza, R., Buzzi, A., Masato, V., Umgiesser, G., & Zampieri, M., 2010: Predictability of extreme meteo-oceaonographic events in the Adriatic Sea. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 400-413.

2009

• (87) Zsoter, E., Buizza, R., & Richardson, D., 2009: 'Jumpiness' of the ECMWF and UK Met Office EPS control and ensemble-mean forecasts'. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3823-3836.

• (86) Taylor, J., McSharry, P. E., & Buizza, R., 2009: Wind power density forecasting using ensemble predictions and time series models. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 24, 775-782.

• (85) Wu, C.-C., Chen, J.-H., Majumdar, S. J., Peng, M. S., Reynolds, C. A., Aberson, S. D., Buizza, R., Yamaguchi, M., Chen, S.-G., Nakazawa, T., & Chou, K.-H., 2009: Inter-comparison of Targeted Observation Guidance for Tropical Cyclones in the North-western Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2471-2492.

• (84) Pappenberger, F., & Buizza, R., 2009: The skill of ECMWF precipitation and temperature predcitions in the Danube basins as forcings of hydrological models. Weather & Forecasting, 24, 749-766.

• (83) Pappenberger, F., Ghelli, A., Buizza, R., & Bodis, K., 2009: The skill of probabilistic precipitation prediction under observational uncertainties within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework for hydrological applications. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10, 794-806.

2008

• (82) Buizza, R., Leutbecher, M., & Isaksen, L., 2008: Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 2051-2066.

• (81) Park, Y.-Y., Buizza, R., & Leutbecher, M., 2008: TIGGE: preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 2029-2050.

• (80) Vitart, F., Buizza, R., Alonso Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bidlot, J. R., Bonet, A., Fuentes, M., Hofstadler, A., Molteni, F., & Palmer, T. N., 2008: The new VAREPS-monthly forecasting system: a first step towards seamless prediction. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 1789-1799.

• (79) Pappenberger, F., Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Cloke, H.L., Buizza, R. & de Roo, A., 2008: New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L10404, DOI:10.1029/2008GL33837.

• (78) Buizza, R., 2008: The value of Probabilistic Prediction. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 36-42 (DOI: 10.1002/asl.170).

• (77) Thielen, J., Schaake, J., Hartman, R., & Buizza, R., 2008: Aims, Challenges and Progress of the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) – a summary of the 3rd HEPEX workshop held in Stresa 27-29 th June 2007. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 29-35 (DOI:10.1002/asl.168).

• (76) Pappenberger, F., Scipal, K., & Buizza, R., 2008: Hydrological aspects of meteorological verifications. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 43-52 (DOI:10.1002/asl.171).

• (75) Buizza, R., 2008: Comparison of a 51-member low-resolution (TL399L62) ensemble with a 6-member high-resolution (TL799L91) lagged-forecast ensemble. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3343-3362.

• (74) Brankovic, C., Matiacic, B., Ivatek-Sahden, S., & Buizza, R., 2008: Dynamical downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forecasts for cases of severe weather: ensemble statistics and cluster analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3323-3342.

2007

• (73) Reynolds, C, Peng, M, Majumdar, S J, Aberson, S D, Bishop, C H, & Buizza, R, 2007: Interpretation of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 4006-4029.

• (72) Cardinali, C., Buizza, R., Kelly, G., Shapiro, M., & Thepaut, J.-N., 2007: The value of observations - Part III: influence of weather regimes on targeting. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 1833-1842.

• (71) Buizza, R., Cardinali, C., Kelly, G., & Thepaut, J.-N., 2007: The value of observations - Part II: the value of observations located in singular vectors-based target areas. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 1817-1832.

• (70) Kelly, G., Thepaut, J.-N., Buizza, R., & Cardinali, C., 2007: The value of observations - Part I: data denial experiments for the Atlantic and the Pacific. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 1803-1815.

• (69) Schaake, J. C., Hamill, T. M., Buizza, R., & Clark, M., 2007: HEPEX, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. Bull. of the Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1541-1547.

• (68) Buizza, R., Bidlot, J.-R., Wedi, N., Fuentes, M., Hamrud, M., Holt, G., & Vitart, F., 2007: The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System). Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 681-695.

2006

• (67) Malguzzi, P, Grossi, G, Buzzi, A, Ranzi, R, & Buizza, R, 2006: The 1966 'century' flood in Italy: a meteorological-hydrological revisitation. J. Geoph. Res., 111, D24106, 1-15.

• (66) Majumdar, S J, Aberson, S D, Bishop, C H, Buizza, R, Peng, M, & Reynolds, C, 2006: A comparison of adaptive observing guidance for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2354-2372.

• (65) Buizza, R., 2006: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Published in Predictability of Weather and Climate, Cambridge University Press, 459-489.

• (64) Schaake, J., Franz, K., Bradley, A., & Buizza, R., 2006: The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Discuss., 3, 3321-3332.

• (63) Taylor, J., & Buizza, R., 2006: Density forecasting for weather derivative pricing. Intern. J. Forecast., 22, 29-42.

2005

• (62) Buizza, R., Houtekamer, P. L., Toth, Z., Pellerin, G., Wei, M., & Zhu, Y., 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP Global Ensemble Prediction Systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 5, 1076-1097.

• (61) Franz, K., Ajami, N., Schaake, J., & Buizza, R., 2005: Hydrological ensemble prediction experiment focuses on reliable forecasts. EOS, 86 (25), 239-249.

• (60) Gouweleeuw, B. T. , Thielen, J., Franchello, G., De Roo, A. P. J., & Buizza, R., 2005: Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS), 9, 365-380.

2004

• (59) Bourke, W., Buizza, R., & Naughton, M., 2004: Performance of the ECMWF and the BoM Ensemble Systems in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2338-2357.

• (58) Chessa, P., Ficca, G., Marrocu, M., & Buizza, R., 2004: Applications of a limited-area short-range ensemble forecast system to a case of heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean region. Weather and Forecasting, 19, 566-581.

• (57) Buizza, R., 2004: Monte Carlo-based Risk Assesment. Management Report submitted to London Business School for the degree of Master in Business Administration (MBA), May 2004; available from London Business School, Regent's Park, London NW1-4SA, UK.

• (56) Coutinho, M. M., Hoskins, B. J., & Buizza, R., 2004: The influence of physical processes on extratropical singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 195-209.

• (55) Taylor, J., & Buizza, R., 2004: A comparison of temperature density forecasts from GARCH and atmospheric models. Journal of Forecasting, 23, 337-355.

2003

• (54) Cardinali, C., & Buizza, R., 2003: Forecast skill of targeted observations: a singular-vector-based diagnostic. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1927-1940.

• (53) Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., & Buizza, R., 2003: The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts. Non-linear Processes in Geophysics, 10, 261-274.

• (52) Buizza, R., Richardson, D. S., & Palmer, T. N., 2003: Benefits of increased resolution in the ECMWF ensemble system and comparison with poor-man's ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129, 1269-1288 .

• (51) Taylor, J., & Buizza, R., 2003: Using Weather Ensemble Prediction in Energy Demand Forecasting. Intern. J. Forecast., 19, 57-70.

• (50) Buizza, R., 2003: Weather Prediction: Ensemble Prediction. Published in the Encyclopaedia of Atmospheric Sciences, Academic Press, London.

2002

• (49) Majumdar, S., Bishop, C., Buizza, R., & Gelaro, R., 2002: A comparison of PSU-NCEP Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter targeting guidance with ECMWF and NRL Singular Vector guidance. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 2527-2549.

• (48) Buizza, R., & Chessa, P., 2002: Prediction of the US-storm of 24-26 January 2000 with the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 1531-1551.

• (47) Taylor, J. W., & Buizza, R., 2002: Neural network load forecasting with weather ensemble prediction. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 17, 626-633.

• (46) Mullen, S., & Buizza, R., 2002: The Impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Weather and Forecasting, 17, 173-191.

• (45) Buizza, R., & Hollingsworth, A., 2002: Storm prediction over Europe using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Meteorol. Appl., 9, 1-17.

• (44) Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., & Buizza, R., 2001: Performance of the SMR-ARPA limited-area ensemble prediction system: two flood cases. Non-linear Processes in Geophysics, 8, 387-399.

• (43) Gilmour, I., Smith, L. A., & Buizza, R., 2001: On the duration of the linear regime: is 24 hours a long time in weather forecasting?. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3525-3539.

• (42) Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., & Paccagnella, T., 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part I: definition of representative members and global-model experiments. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2069-2094.

• (41) Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S, Molteni, F., & Buizza, R., 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. Part II: limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2095-2115.

• (40) Buizza, R., 2001a: Accuracy and economic value of categorical and probabilistic forecasts of discrete events. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2329-2345.

• (39) Buizza, R, 2001b: Chaos and weather prediction. Il Nuovo Cimento C, 24, 273-302.

• (38) Mullen, S., & Buizza, R., 2001: Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev.,129, 638-663.

• (37) Barkmeijer, J., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., Puri, K., & Mahfouf, J.-F., 2001: Tropical singular vectors computed with linearized diabatic physics. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 685-708.

• (36) Buizza, R., Hollingsworth, A., Lalaurette, F., & Ghelli, A., 2000a: Reply to comments by Wilson and by Juras. Weather and Forecasting, 15, 367-369.

• (35) Hoskins, B. J., Buizza, R., & Badger, J., 2000: The nature of singular vector growth and structure. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 1565-1580.

• (34) Buizza, R., Barkmeijer, J., Palmer, T. N., & Richardson, D., 2000b: Current Status and Future Developments of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Meteorol. Appl., 6, 1-14.

• (33) Montani, A., Thorpe, A. J., Buizza, R., & Unden, P., 1999: Forecast skill of the ECMWF model using targeted observations during FASTEX. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 3219-3240.

• (32) Buizza, R., Miller, M., & Palmer, T. N., 1999a: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887-2908.

• (31) Harrison, M. S. J., Palmer, T. N., Richardson, D. S., & Buizza, R., 1999: Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: two transplant case studies. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2487-2515.

• (30) Barkmeijer, J., Buizza, R., & Palmer, T. N., 1999: 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2333-2351.

• (29) Molteni, F., & Buizza, R., 1999: Validation of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System using empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2346-2358.

• (28) Buizza, R., & Montani, A., 1999: Targeting observations using singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2965-2985.

• (27) Buizza, R., Hollingsworth, A., Lalaurette, F., & Ghelli, A., 1999b: Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Weather and Forecasting, 14, 2, 168-189.

• (26) Buizza, R., 1999: Reply to "Comments on 'Impact of horizontal diffusion on T21, T42 and T63 singular vectors' by P L Houtekamer". J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 6, 903.

• (25) Buizza, R., & Palmer, T. N., 1998: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 9, 2503-2518.

• (24) Buizza, R., Petroliagis, T., Palmer, T. N., Barkmeijer, J., Hamrud, M., Hollingsworth, A., Simmons, A., & Wedi, N., 1998: Impact of model resolution and ensemble size on the performance of an ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 24, 550, 1935-1960.

• (23) Palmer, T. N., Gelaro, R., Barkmeijer, J., & Buizza, R., 1998: Singular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 6, 633-653.

• (22) Gelaro, R., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., & Klinker, E., 1998: Sensitivity analysis of forecast errors and the construction of optimal perturbations using singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 6, 1012-1037.

• (21) Buizza, R., 1998: Impact of horizontal diffusion on T21, T42 and T63 singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 6, 1069-1083.

• (20) Palmer, T. N., Barkmeijer, J., Buizza, R., & Petroliagis, T., 1997: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Meteorol. Appl., 4, 301-304.

• (19) Petroliagis, T., Buizza, R., Lanzinger, A., & Palmer, T. N., 1997: Potential use of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System in cases of extreme weather events. Meteorol. Appl., 4, 69-84.

• (18) Buizza, R., Gelaro, R., Molteni, F., & Palmer, T. N., 1997: The impact of increased resolution on predictability studies with singular vectors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 1007-1033.

• (17) Buizza, R., 1997a: The singular vector approach to the analysis of perturbation growth in the atmosphere. Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) of the University of London, March 1997; available from the Department of Mathematics, U.C.L., Gower Street, London WC1E-6BT, UK.

• (16) Buizza, R., 1997b: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1, 99-119.

• (15) Petroliagis, T., Buizza, R., Lanzinger, A., & Palmer, T. N., 1996: Extreme rainfall prediction using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. J. Geoph. Res., 101, D21, 26,227-26,236.

• (14) Hartmann, D. L., Palmer, T. N., & Buizza, R., 1996: Finite-time instabilities of lower-stratospheric flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 15, 2129-2143.

• (13) Buizza, R., & Molteni, F., 1996: On the role of finite-time barotropic instability during transition to blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 12, 1675-1697.

• (12) Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., & Petroliagis, T., 1996: The new ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 73-119.

• (11) Hartmann, D. L., Buizza, R., & Palmer, T. N., 1995: Singular vectors: the effect of spatial scale on linear growth of disturbances. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3885-3894.

• (10) Buizza, R., 1995a: Optimal perturbation time evolution and sensitivity of ensemble prediction to perturbation amplitude. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 1705-1738.

• (9) Buizza, R., 1995b: The impact of orographic forcing on barotropic unstable singular vectors. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 9, 1457-1472.

• (8) Buizza, R., & Palmer, T. N., 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 9, 1434-1456.

• (7) Palmer, T. N., Buizza, R., Molteni, F., Chen, Y.-Q., & Corti, S., 1994: Singular vectors and the predictability of weather and climate. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A, 348, 459-475.

• (6) Buizza, R., 1994a: Localization of optimal perturbations using a projection operator. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 120, 1647-1682.

• (5) Buizza, R., 1994b: Sensitivity of Optimal Unstable Structures. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 120, 429-451.

• (4) Buizza, R., & Pelosini, R., 1994: Rainfall prediction with a limited area model during an intense storm over northern Italy. Il Nuovo Cimento, 17C, 5, 665-681.

• (3) Buizza, R., Tribbia, J., Molteni, F., & Palmer, T. N., 1993: Computation of optimal unstable structures for a numerical weather prediction model. Tellus, 45A, 388-407.

• (2) Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., Buizza, R., & Scoccianti, S., 1992: High-resolution numerical modeling of convective precipitation over northern Italy. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 50, 143-163.

• (1) Morselli, M. G., Buizza, R., Finardi, S., & Brusasca, G., 1992: ICARO: a package for wind field studies over complex terrain. Environmental Software, 7, 241-254.

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