EURORISK/PREVIEW project

The main scientific objective of this 6th Framework project of the European Union is to evaluate the added value of medium-range flood forecasting to allow for reliable extended warning times as compared to short-term forecasting. One of the projects scientific objectives is to evaluate statistically the relative merits of the high-resolution atmospheric models and larger size ensembles atmospheric models at lower resolutions to drive hydrological models in view of producing probabilistic flood forecasts.

ECMWF is involved in the 'Medium-Range Plain Floods' work package of the PREVIEW project, which is coordinated by Ad de Roo of the Joint research Center of Ispra (Italy). The ultimate operational objectives of PREVIEW related to flood are to develop a consistent cascading set of operational products and services deployable from local to global scale, supporting flood prevention and preparedness (flood case simulation, rescue plan preparation, flood forecasting) and land planning measures (flood atlas, support to risk prevention plans). In particular, th 'Medium-range Plain Floods' work package's main scientific objective is to evaluate the added value of medium-range flood forecasting to allow for reliable extended warning times as compared to short-term forecasting.

ECMWF contribution to this package includes access to archived ensemble data and to ensemble re-forecasts for a defined special period (Jul-Aug 2002), and exchange of knowledge and expertise on ensemble generation and verification methods.

The project started in April 2005.

The pdf files of my ECMWF presentations given to the three PREVIEW meetings held at the Joint Research Center (Ispra, Italy) in September 2005 and in March 2006, and at Meteo France (Paris, France) in September 2006, can be accessed from this page:

• EPS and VAREPS re-forecasts for PREVIEW special period (Mar 2006)
• Recent developments of the ECMWF EPS (Sep 2005)
• A framework to assess ensemble performance (Sep 2006)
• Ensemble re-forecasts for PREVIEW special period (Sep 2006)

Furthermore, a copy of the EURORISK/PREVIEW report on "Technical quality, fucntional quality and forecast value" can also be downloaded from this page:

• EURORISK/PREVIEW report on "Technical quality, fucntional quality and forecast value (Buizza et al, 2007)

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