Firenze 1966

In November 1966, parts of North-Eastern and Central Italy were affected by severe flooding. This terrible flood event remained known as 'L'alluvione di Firenze', since Firenze was one of the worst affected Italian cities.

This research project, started in 2003 and realized in collaboration with ISAC-CNR Bologna and the Department of Civil Engineering of the University of Brescia, aims (i) to assess the value of the ERA-40 database for a-posteriori studies of the value of the ECMWF forecasting system, (ii) to examine the accuracy of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, and (iii) to investigate the potential usefulness of a cascade of models that include a hydrological model of the Arno river (see Malguzzi et al, 2006, under revision).

Two pdf files, one with some earlier results (August 2003) and one with some very recent probabilistic precipitation predictions produced by the new Variable resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VAREPS, due to be implemented at ECMWF in 2006), can be accessed from this page.

• Firenze 1966
• VAREPS predictions of the Italian flood of 1966

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