Publications

Pappenberger, F., Stephens,  E., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., van Andel, S.J., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication, Hydrological Processes

He, Y., Manful, D., He, J. , Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.L., Wetterhall, F., Bates, P., A potential of geo-browsers for dynamic probabilistic flood risk mapping, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems.

Trinh, B.N. Cloke, H.L., Thielen, J., Bogner, K. , Pappenberger, F, Adapting meteorological skill scores for hydrological ensemble prediction system (EPS) Hydrology Research

Pappenberger, F. and Ratto, M., Sensitivity Analysis. In: K. Beven and J. Hall (Editors), Flood Forecasting. Wiley & Co, New York.

Bates, P.D., Pappenberger, F., Romanowicz, R., Uncertainty and risk in flood inundation modelling In: K. Beven and J. Hall (Editors), Flood Forecasting. Wiley & Co, New York.

Alfieri, L., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., Ensemble hydro-meteorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland, Journal of Hydrology, 424–425, 43–153 [pdf]

Voisin, N., Pappenberger, F., Lettenmaier, D. P., Buizza, R., & Schaake, J. C., 2011: Application of a Medium-Range Global Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme to the Ohio River Basin. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 425–446 [pdf]

Bogner, K; Cloke, H; Pappenberger, F.; de Roo, A; Thielen, J, Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube catchment , International Journal of River Basin Management [pdf]

De Roo, A., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Nobert, S., Cloke, H.L., Demeritt, D., Younis, J., Kalas, M., Bodis, K., Muraro D., Pappenberger, F., 2011, Quality Control, Validation and User Feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), International Journal of Digital Earth, 4(1), 77-90 [pdf]

He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Weerts, A., Ramos, M.-H., and Bruen, M., 2011, Practical applications of Ensemble Hydro-meteorological forecasting, Adv. Geosci., 29 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Persson, A., and Demeritt, D., 2010, HESS Opinions "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?", Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2391-2400, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011, 2011. [pdf]

Bogner, K.; Pappenberger, F. Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system, 2010, Water Resour. Res., Vol. 47, No. 7, W07524 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009137 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., del Medico, M., 2011, The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System, Hydrological Processes, 25(7), DOI : 10.1002/hyp.7772, 2010 [pdf]

Balsamo, G., Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Viterbo P., van den Hurk, B, 2011, A revised land hydrology in the ECMWF model: a step towards daily water flux prediction in a fully-closed water cycle, Hydrological Processes, 25(7) DOI : 10.1002/hyp.7808, 2010 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. L., and Thielen, J., 2011, Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems, Adv. Geosci., 29, 27-32, doi:10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011 [pdf]

Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H., and Pappenberger, F., 2011, Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting, Adv. Geosci., 29, 21-25, doi:10.5194/adgeo-29-21-2011 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Cloke, H.L., Balsamo, G. Oki, P., Ngo-Duc, T., Global routing of surface and subsurface runoff produced by the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system, International Journal of Climatology , 30(4), 2155-2174, [pdf]:

Cloke, H. L., Jeffers, C., Wetterhall, F., Byrne, T., Lowe J., Pappenberger, F., 2010, Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD, Hydrological Processes, DOI : 10.1002/hyp.7769 [pdf]

Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. 2010, Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting, Meteorological Applications, 17, (2), 209-222 [pdf]

Ramos, M.H., Mathevet, T., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., 2010, Communicating uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts: mission impossible? Meteorological Applications, 17, (2), 223-235 [pdf]

Schaake, J., Pailleux, J., Arritt, R., Hamill, T., Luo, L., Martin, E. McCollor, D., Pappenberger, F., 2010 Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 15-18 June 2009, Atmospheric Science Letters, 11(2), 59-63 [pdf]

Thiemig, V., Pappenberger F., Thielen, J., Gadain, H., de Roo, A., del Medico, M., Muthusi, F., 2010, Ensemble Flood Forecasting in Africa: A Feasibility Study in the Juba-Shabelle River Basin, Atmospheric Science Letters, 11(2), 123-131, [pdf]

He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Bao, H.-J., Cloke, H.L., Li, Z.-J., Pappenberger, F., Hu, Y.-ZH., Manful, D., Huang,Y.-CH., 2010, Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment - a case study, Atmospheric Science Letters, 11(2) , 132-138 [pdf]

McMillan, M., Krueger, T., Freer, J., Clark, M., Pappenberger, F., 2010, Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall-runoff model calibration and discharge predictions, Hydrological Processes, 24, 1270–1284, [pdf]

Neil, J., Schumann, G., Bates, P.D., Buytaert, W., Matgen, P., Pappenberger, F., A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space, Hydrological Processes, 23 (25), 3641 - 3649 [pdf]

Schumann, G., P. D. Bates, M. S. Horritt, P. Matgen, and F. Pappenberger, 2009, Progress in integration of remote sensing–derived flood extent and stage data and hydraulic models, Rev. Geophys., 47, RG4001, doi:10.1029/2008RG000274. [pdf]

Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., 2009, Ensemble Flood Forecasting: a review, Journal of Hydrology, 375(3-4), 613-626 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F ., Buizza, R., Bodis, K. and Ghelli, A., 2009 The skill of probabilistic forecasts under observational uncertainties within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework for hydrological applications. Journal of Hydrometerology, 10(3): 807:819 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F . and Buizza, R., 2009 The skill of ECMWF predictions for hydrological modelling. Weather and Forecasting, 24(3): 749:766 [pdf]

Thielen, J., Bogner, K., Pappenberger F., Kalas, M., del Medico, M., de Roo, A., 2009, Monthly-,medium- and short range flood warning: testing the limits of predictability, Meteorological Applications, 16 (1), 77-90 [pdf]

He, H.Y., Cloke, H.L., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger F., Freer, J., Wilson, M., 2009, Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions, Meteorological Applications, 16(1), 91-101 [pdf]

2008

Schumann, G., Pappenberger, F., Matgen, P., 2008, Estimating uncertainty associated with water stages from single SARimage, Advances in Water Resources , 31(8), 1048-1056 [pdf]

Schumann, G., Pappenberger, F., Matgen, P., 2008, Conditioning water stages from satellite imagery on uncertain data points, IEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 5(4), 810-813 [pdf]

Schumann, G., Matgen, P., Hoffmann, L., Hostache, R., Pappenberger, F. and Pfister, L., 2007. Evaluating uncertain flood inundation predictions with uncertain remotely sensed water stages. International Journal of River Basing Management, 6(3), 187-199 [pdf]

Romanowicz, R., Young, P., Beven, K. and Pappenberger, F., 2008, A Data based mechanistic approach to flood forecasting. Advances in Water Resource , 31(8), 1048-1056 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Cloke, H.L., de Roo, A., Buizza R., 2008, New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using GRAND ensembles, Geophysical Research Letters, 35(10): Art No. L10404, [pdf]

Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F. and Renaud, J-P, 2008, Multi-Method Global Sensitivity Analysis (MMGSA) for Modelling Floodplain Hydrological Processes. Hydrological Processes, 22(11): 1660-167, [pdf]

Cloke, H.L. and Pappenberger, F., 2008. Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures. Meterological Applications, 15(1): 181-197 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F ., Scipal, K. and Buizza, R., 2008. Hydrological aspects of meteorological verification. Atmospheric Science Letters, 9: 43-52 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Beven, K.J., Ratto, M. and Matgen, P., 2008. Multi-method global sensitivity analysis of flood inundation models. Advances in Water Resources, 31(1): 1-14 [pdf]

Romanowicz, R., Kiczko, A., Pappenberger, F., A state dependent nonlinear approach to flood forecasting, Publication of the Institute of Geophysics, Poland, E7(401) [pdf]

2007

Demeritt, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J. and Ramos, M.-H., 2007. Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environmental Hazards, 7(2): 115-127. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Frodsham, K., Beven, K., Romanowicz, R. and Matgen, P., 2007. Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(2): 739-752. [pdf]

Ratto, M., Young, P.C., Romanowicz, R., Pappenberger, F., Saltelli, A. and Pagano, A., 2007. Uncertainty, sensitivity analysis and the role of data based mechanistic modeling in hydrology. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(4): 1249-1266. [pdf]

Schumann, G., Matgen, P., Hoffmann, L., Hostache, R., Pappenberger, F. and Pfister, L., 2007. Deriving distributed roughness values from satellite radar data for flood inundation modelling. Journal of Hydrology, 344(1-2): 96-111 [pdf]

Schumann, G., Matgen, P., Hoffmann, L., Hostache, R., Pappenberger, F. and Pfister, L., 2007. High-resolution 3-D flood information from radar imagery for flood hazard management. IEEE Trasactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 45(6): 1715-1725 [pdf]

Weichel, T., Pappenberger, F. and Schulz, K., 2007. Sensitivity and uncertainty in flood inundation modelling - concept of an analysis framework. Advances in Geosciences, 11: 31-36. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Beven, K.J., Frodsham, K., Romanovicz, R. and Matgen, P., 2007. Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation models: A Vulnerability weighted approach. Journal of Hydrology, 333(2-4): 275-287 [pdf]

2006

Pappenberger, F. and Beven, K.J., 2006. Ignorance is bliss - or 7 reasons not to use uncertainty analysis. Water Resources Research, 42(5): doi: 10.1029/2005WR004820. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Harvey, H., Beven, K., Hall, J. and Meadowcroft, I., 2006. Decision tree for choosing an uncertainty analysis methodology: a wiki experiment. Hydrological Processes, 20(17): 3793-3798 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Iorgulescu, I. and Beven, K.J., 2006. Sensitivity analysis based on regional splits and regression trees (SARS-RT). Environmental Modelling & Software, 21(7): 976-990. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Matgen, P., Beven, K.J., Henry, J.B., Pfister, L. and Fraipont de, P., 2006. Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions. Advances in Water Resources, 29(10): 1430-1449. [pdf]

Xingguo, M., Pappenberger, F., K.J.,Beven., de Roo, A. and Suxia, L., 2006. Parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 51(1): 45-65. [pdf]

2005

Pappenberger, F. , Beven, K., Horritt, M. and Blazkova, S., 2005. Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations. Journal of Hydrology, 302(1-4): 46-69 [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Beven, K.J., Hunter, N., Gouweleeuw, B., Bates, P., de Roo, A. and Thielen, J., 2005. Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS). Hydrology and Earth System Science, 9(4): 381-393. [pdf]

2004

Pappenberger, F. and Beven, K., 2004. Functional Classification and Evaluation of Hydrographs based on Multicomponent Mapping. Journal of River Basin Management, 2(2): 89-100. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Beven, K.J., de Roo, A., Thielen, J. and Gouweleeuw, B., 2004. Uncertainty analysis of the rainfall runoff model LisFlood within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). Journal of River Basin Management, 2(2): 123-133. [pdf]

2003

de Roo, A., Gouweleeuw, B., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Bongioannini-Cerlini, P., Todini, E., Bates, P., Horritt, M., Hunter, N., Beven, K.J., Pappenberger, F., Heise, E., Rivin, G., Hills, M., Hollingsworth, A., Holst, B., Kwadijk, J., Reggiani, P., van Dijk, M., Sattler, K. and Sprokkereef, E., 2003. Development of a European Flood Forecasting System. Journal of River Basin Management, 1: 49-59. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F., Zappa, M. Smith, P.J. Ramos, M.H. Cloke, H.L., He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Rossa, A., Schaake, J., Thielen, J. , 2010, Reply to HESS Opinions “Ensemble, uncertainty and flood prediction” by Dance, S. and Zou, Q.P., Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion , 7, 3591-3611

2006

Pappenberger, F. , 2006. Comment on 'Guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication - Checklist for uncertainty in spatial information & visualising spatial uncertainty' by Visser, H., Petersen, A.c., Beusen, A.H.W., Heuberger, P.S.C. and Jjansen, P.H.M., RIVM/MNP, Report Nr. 55032001/2006, available from http://www.mnp.nl/leidraad. Environment and Planning A.

2003

Beven, K.J. and Pappenberger, F., 2003. Towards the hydraulics of the hydroinformatics era - By M.B. Abbott, V.M. Babovic and J.A. Cunge, Journal of Hydraulic Research, Volume 39, 2001, Issue 4, pp. 339-349 - Discussion. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 41(3): 331-333.

Pappenberger, F. 2010, River routing models to support NWP evaluation, in ECMWF / GLASS Workshop on Land Surface Modelling and Data Assimilation and the implications for predictability, 9-12 November 2009, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts [pdf]

Vandenberghe, V., Ratto, M., and Pappenberger, F., 2010, Review of sensitivity analysis methods, 2010, Review of sensitivity analysis methods, in Modelling Aspects of Water Framework Directive Implementation, Vanrolleghem, P.A. (ed) ISBN: 978184339223, 191-270, 260pp [TOC]

Blazkova, S.D., Beven, K.J., Skaugen, T., Pappenberger, F., Lamb, R., 2010, Techniques for Extreme Rainfall and Flood Runoff Estimation in FRIEND Global Report 2006-2009 - EURO FRIEND (editor: Lanen V.P.) [draft]

2008

Ramos, M.H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Utilisation de la prevision meteprpepgique d’ensemble pour la prevision hydrologique operationnelle et l’alerte aux crues, Colloque SHF-191 CST, Lyon, 18-19 November 2008, 191-199

Pappenberger, F. , 2008, The use of multiple NWPs in hydrological modelling, In: Modelling Floods and Drougths uncertainty for Water Management Resources, Blazkova S. (ed.), 30-41

2007

Schumann, G., Hostache, R., Puech, C., Hoffmann, L., Matgen, P., Pappenberger, F. and Pfister, L., 2007. High-resolution 3-D flood information from radar imagery for flood hazard management. Ieee Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 45(6): 1715-1725.

Pappenberger, F. and Buizza, R., Comparison of catchment and grid based model evaluation of precipitation for hydrological applications on the example of the July/August 2002 flood in the Danube, 3 rd HEPEX workshop, Ispra, Italy

2006

Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Blair, G., Coulson, G., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. and Beven, K., 2006. An intelligent and adaptable grid-based flood monitoring and warning system. In: S.J. Cox (Editor), Proceedings of the Uk E-Science All Hands Meeting 2006, pp. 53-60. [pdf]

Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Coulson, G., Blair, G., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. and Beven, K., 2006. GridStix: Supporting Flood Prediction using Embedded Hardware and Next Generation Grid Middleware, WOWMOM '06: Proceedings of the 2006 International Symposium on on World of Wireless, Mobile and Multimedia Networks. IEEE Computer Society, pp. 621-626.

Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Porter, B., Grace, P., Coulson, G., Blair, G., Taiani, F., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. and Beven, K., 2006. Using grid technologies to optimise a wireless sensor network for flood management, Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Embedded networked sensor systems. ACM, Boulder, Colorado, USA. [pdf]

Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Porter, B., Grace, P., Coulson, G., Blair, G., Taiani, F., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. and Beven, K., 2006. An experiment with reflective middleware to support grid-based flood monitoring, Concurrency and computation-practice & Experience. 20(11), 1303-1316

Schulz, K., Weichel, T., Haase, D.,Pappenberger, F., 2006. Möglichkeiten der Fernerkundung für eine verbesserte Hochwasservorhersage. Dresdner Schriften zur Hydrologie 5, TU Dresden, Dresden: 330-336.

Weichel, T., Schulz, K., Haase, D., Pappenberger, F., 2006. Moeglichkeiten der Fernerkundung fuer eine verbesserte Hochwasservorhersage, SYNAP, Dresden, Germany.

Pappenberger, F., 2006, Cascading Uncertainty in flood forecasting, CHR workshop on ensemble predictions, Bern, Switzerland, 30/31 March 2006

Blažková, S., Beven, K.J., Skaugen, T., Pappenberger, F. & Werner M.. (2010)
Techniques for extreme rainfall and flood runoff estimation, Chapter 2.3.3 In: Servat E. and Demuth S. (Eds.) FRIEND - a global perspective 2006-2009. UNESCO - International Hydrological Programme IV, 19-23

2005

Beven, K., Romaniwicz, R., Pappenberger, F., Young, P. and Werner, M., 2005. The uncertainty cascade in flood forecasting. In: P. Balbanis, D. Lambroso and P. Samuels (Editors), Advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, ACTIF, Tromso, Norway, pp. 33.

2004

Cloke HL, Thielen J, Franchello G, Gouweleeuw B, Kalas M, Van der Knijff J, de Roo A, Pappenberger F (2004) ‘Evaluation of the meteorological inputs to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)’ Proceedings of the International Flood Risk Assessment Conference, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, 7-8 September 2004, University of Bath, UK.

Cloke HL, Demeritt D, Pappenberger F (2004) Risk Communication and the European Flood Alert System. In J Thielen & A de Roo (Eds). 2 nd EFAS Workshop, Ispra, Italy, 10-12 November 2004 (Ispra: Joint Research Centre, European Commission), 32-33

Cloke, H.L., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., Nobert, S., Salamon, P., Buizza, R., Bálint, G., Edlund, C., Koistinen, A., de Saint-Aubin, C., Viel, C., Sprokkereef, E. Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting, ECMWF Newsletter No 121, p 20-24 [pdf]

Buizza, R., Pappenberger, F., Salamon, P., Thielen, J., de Roo, A., EPS/EFAS probabilistic flood prediction for Northern Italy: the case of 30 April 2009, ECMWF Newsletter No 120, p 10-16 [pdf]

2008

Cloke, H.L, and Pappenberger F., 2008, Operational Flood forecasting: A review of ensemble techniques, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts , Reading. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Bartholmes, J. and Thielen, J., 2008. TIGGE: Medium Range multi model weather forecast ensembles in Flood Forecasting (A Case Study), European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Buizza, R., 2008, The value of ensemble predictions for hydrological applications, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. [pdf]

2007

Buizza, R., Pappenberger F., et al., 2007. EURORISK/PREVIEW: the technical quality, functional quality and forecast value of meteorological and hydrological forecasts, European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. [pdf]

Palmer, T.N., Buizza, R., Leutbecher, M., Hagedorn, R., Jung, T., Rodwell, M., Vitart, F., Berner, J., Hagel, E., Lawrence, A., Pappenberger, F., Park, Y.-Y., von Bremen, L. and Gilmour, I., 2007. The Ensemble Prediction System - Recent and Ongoing Developments, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. [pdf]

Pappenberger, F. , Harvey, H., Beven, K. and Hall, J., 2007. Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental Modeling Made Easy. EOS Transactions AGU, 88(3): 26.

2005

Pappenberger, F. , Harvey, H., Beven, K.J., Hall, J., Romanovicz, R. and Smith, P., 2005. Risk & Uncertainty - Tools and Implementation - Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (download from www.floodrisk.org.uk and www.floodrisk.net), Lancaster University Lancaster.