Projects

Florian Pappenberger

Education Professional Experience Research interests Publications Conference Presentations Awards and Services Projects HEPS

Current Projects

European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

Following the disastrous floods in the Elbe and Danube river basins in August 2002, the European Commission announced the development of a European Flood Alert System (EFAS). EFAS will provide medium-range flood simulations across Europe with a lead-time between 3 to 15 days.EFAS will provide the European Commission with overview information, which is comparable across Europe, for the preparation and management of aid during a flood crisis. The national hydrological services and water authorities will benefit from the additional medium-range flood information that will contribute to increased preparedness for future flood events. EFAS is aimed at complementing national flood forecasting systems, not replacing them.

Since the beginning of this project EFAS has evolved to a state-of-the-art flood forecasting system with several pioneering products, such as probabilistic flood forecasting and novel analysis and communication methods used for interpretation of multiple forecasts. The prototype has matured from a research project to a pre-operational system providing national water authorities with information on probabilities of early flood warnings, 24 hours per day and 365 days per year.

This project is a pilot for the transfer of EFAS to operational service.

More information can be found on the EFAS webpages.

Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention (KULTURisk)

start 01/2011

The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages. The KULTURisk project aims at developing a culture of risk prevention by means of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of prevention measures. The development of a culture of risk prevention requires the improvement of our: a) memory and knowledge of past disasters; b) communication and understanding capacity of current and future hazards; c) awareness of risk and d) preparedness for future events. In order to demonstrate the advantages of prevention options, an original methodology will be developed, applied and validated using specific European case studies, including transboundary areas. The benefits of state-of-the-art prevention measures, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural initiatives, will be demonstrated. In particular, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, will be highlighted. Furthermore, the outcomes of the project will be used to efficiently educate the public and train professionals in risk prevention. KULTURisk will first focus on water-related hazards as the likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related catastrophes might increase in the near future because of land-use and/or climate changes. In particular, a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales will be utilised. Finally, the applicability of the KULTURisk approach to different types of natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires) will also be analysed.

More information can be found on the KULTURisk webpages.

A collaborative project aimed at pre-validation of a GMES Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS)

start 01/2011

The main objective of the proposed project GLOWASIS is to pre-validate a GMES Global Service for Water Scarcity Information. In European and global pilots on the scale of river catchments, it will combine in-situ and satellite derived water cycle information and more government ruled statistical water demand data in order to create an information portal on water scarcity. This portal will be made interoperable with the WISE-RTD portal. More awareness for the complexity of the water scarcity problem will be created and additional capabilities of satellite-measured water cycle parameters can be promoted, but also directly matched to user requirements. By creating the user-scientist community, GLOWASIS will guide earth observation scientists to efficient innovation for the specific purpose of water scarcity assessment and forecasting. By linking water demand and supply in three pilot studies with existing systems (EDO and PCR-GLOBWB) for medium- and long-term forecasting in Europe, Africa and worldwide, GLOWASIS' information will contribute both in near-real time reporting for emerging drought events as well as in provision of climate change time series. By combining complex water cycle variables, governmental issues and economic relations with respect to water demand, GLOWASIS will aim for the needed streamlining of the wide variety of important water scarcity information. Infrastructure is set up for dissemination and inclusion of current and future innovative and integrated multi-purpose products for research & operational applications. The service will use data from GMES Core Services LMCS Geoland2 and Marine Core Service MyOcean (e.g. land use, soil moisture, soil sealing, sea level), in-situ data from GEWEX' initiatives (i.e. International Soil Moisture network), agricultural and industrial water use and demand (statistical – AQUASTAT, SEEAW and modelled) and additional water-cycle information from existing global satellite services.

More information can be found on the GLOWASIS webpages (soon).

GLOWASIS NEWS:

Improved Drought Early Warning and FORecasting to strengthen preparedness and adaptation to droughts in Africa (DEWFORA)

start 01/2011

The principal aim of the DEWFORA proposal is to develop a framework for the provision of early warning and response to mitigate the impact of droughts in Africa. The proposal has been built to achive three key targets:

1. Improved monitoring: by improving knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advancing the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought – both in the current and in the projected future climate.
2. Prototype operational forecasting: by bringing advances made in the project to the pre-operational stage through development of prototype systems and piloting methods in operational drought monitoring and forecasting agencies.
3. Knowledge dissemination: through a stakeholders platform that includes national and regional drought monitoring and forecasting agencies, as well as NGO's and IGO's, and through capacity building programmes to help embed the knowledge gained in the community of African practitioners and researchers.

To achieve these targets, the DEWFORA consortium brings together leading research institutes and universities; institutes that excel in application of state-of-the-art science in the operational domain; operational agencies responsible for meteorological forecasting, drought monitoring and famine warning; and established knowledge networks in Africa. The consortium provides an excellent regional balance, and the skilled coordinator and several partners have worked together in (European) research projects, implementation projects and capacity building programmes, thus building efficiently on previous and ongoing projects in Europe and Africa.
The main impact of DEWFORA will be to increase the effectiveness of drought forecasting, warning and response. DEWFORA will provide guidance on how and where drought preparedness and adaptation should be targeted to contribute to increased resilience and improved effectiveness of drought mitigation measures.

More information can be found on the -more details soon-.

Impacts of land use and water resources management on hydrological processes under varying climatic conditions (LUWR)

LUWR is an international research project aimed at analysing the impacts of historical, current and future changes in climate variability, land use and water management on hydrological processes, for the purpose of mitigation of present and future risks to the public and ecosystems from extreme events (droughts and floods). 

The difficulty of separating the different causes of changes in the hydrological regime results from

• the complexity of interactions between climatic, land use and water management factors and the hydrological responses
• the uncertainties in, and scarcity of, available observations.

To tackle the complexity of land - surface hydrological interactions, we apply mapping from the parameter space of models of hydrological processes on to external forcing (an inverse problem). In other words, we want to focus on detecting changes in a data-based hydrological process description and relating them to changes in meteorological processes and other external forcing factors, such as changes in water management practices or land use.

More information can be found on the LUWR website.

THORPEX/HEPEX HYDROLOGICAL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (THEPS)

THEPS is a project which integrates the HEPEX project within the THORPEX project. A project proposal was endorsed at the Special Topics Workshop on Downscaling of Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Prediction, June 15-18, 2009, Toulouse, France . [project proposal]

HEPEX is an international research and development program aimed at the development of advanced hydrologic forecast systems capable of quantifying state dependent uncertainty. Since weather forecasts are such a strong driver in hydrologic forecasting, and because of the great societal implications of hydrologic predictions, HEPEX is an ideal partner for the THORPEX program in a very important area of weather forecast applications. A hydrologic component, the THORPEX/HEPEX Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System (THEPS) is proposed as a joint THORPEX/HEPEX collaborative activity within the THORPEX project. This project would have 3 goals:

1. Assess how the TIGGE datasets and THORPEX science plan can meet the requirements of the HEPEX community.
2. Provide feedback to the THORPEX community on the information content of TIGGE and THORPEX scientific questions , and hence contribute to the design and development of GIFS.
3. Help the HEPEX community in using the TIGGE datasets and THORPEX research outputs within Hydrological EPSs.

Hydrological applications range across scales from catchments of less than a few km2 to continental scale. It can integrate responses over a range of variables (for example precipitation, evaporation, temperature, radiation etc) as well as across spatial and temporal scale. Hydrological systems act often as a low pass non-linear filter of atmospheric drivers. As such it can for example allow to assess predictive skill at all forecast ranges, including potential predictability of many near surface variables on a large range of scales. These scales are meaningful integrators of point observations and thus allow a suitable comparison to model predictions. Additionally, hydrology can act as a diagnostic to quantify the contributions of initial condition and model uncertainty to forecast errors or investigate the relative effects of small and large-scale initial-condition uncertainty and as such develop improved global ensemble-prediction systems. For example, many hydrological regimes can be sensitive to initial conditions and evaluate the signal of changing configurations. Additionally, hydrological models are already part of many meteorological models in the form of land surface schemes. HEPEX can act as a communication platform between the traditional small scale hydrological community and the large scale hydrologists.

Scientific issues associated with THORPEX-HEPEX collaboration include:

1. What are the requirements for meteorological ensemble forecasts to support hydrological ensemble prediction and the scientific issues or questions that need to be addressed to meet these requirements?
2. How important is the feedback of hydrologic processes for the atmospheric circulation?
3. What downscaling methods (dynamical or statistical) can be used to interpret lower resolution atmospheric forecasts for hydrologic applications?
4. What is the best way for the user community to take advantage of ensemble forecasts?

Past Projects

Service and Applications for Emergency Response (SAFER)

project completed 12/2010

In the frame of GMES initiative (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security), SAFER project aims at implementing preoperational versions of the Emergency Response Core Service.

SAFER will reinforce European capacity to respond to emergency situations: fires, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, humanitarian crisis. ECMWF is involved in WP3011 Flood Early-Warning systems lead by the Ad de Roo (Action leader of the European Flood Alert System, JRC, European Comission). The proposed scope of this WP is the integration of the lessons learned within Preview (or other projects) to consolidate the EFAS system.

More information on the project can be found on the SAFER website.

Novel Early flood Warning and Risk Assessment System (NEWS)

project completed 12/2010

Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. The entire spectrum of flood prediction from short-term (a few hours), medium-term (a few days) to long-term (a number of years) needs to be revisited and adapted to the changing socio-economical and hydro-climatic conditions. The latter is true for the UK, China and many other countries in the world. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather/climate prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system.

More information can be found on the NEWS website.

Uncertainty Assessments of Flood Inundation Impacts: Using spatial climate change scenarios to drive an Ensemble of Distributed Models for Extreme Conditions

project completed 07/2010

This project aims to improve estimates of flood inudation hazard by propagating uncertainties from Regional Climate Model precipitation projections into an ensemble of flood inundation predictions for large basin scales. The project team will use a cascade of distributed climate, rainfall-runoff and flood inundation models to:

1. Quantify the top-end uncertainties by assessing extreme precipitation fields produced using two contrasting approaches.
2. Assess the impact of these top-end uncertainties on flood inundation predictions.
3. Quantify all inter- and intra- model uncertainties of the cascade framework for various climate, landues and soil moisture scenarios.
4. Assess the impacts of using different existing rainfall-runoff and flood inundation models with a relatively low number of simulations using novel techniques.
5. Deliver a methodology for general use that is highly scaleable.

More information can be found on the Project website.

Hydrological and Meteorological Datenassimilation (HyMedDas)

Spring school in Bad Schandau, 25. - 30. April 2010

Deviations between model integrations and observations are a common in geo­sciences. What lessons do we learn from these discrepancies? Various disciplines have found different answers: Hydrologists will tend to adapt parameters and model formulations whereas meteorologists will update the initial state. This spring school brings together this complementary expertise to exchange methods and to foster novel comprehensive approaches.

More information can be found on the HyMedDas website

EURORISK/PREVIEW

project completed 12/2008

The main scientific objective of this 6th Framework project of the European Union is to evaluate the added value of medium-range flood forecasting to allow for reliable extended warning times as compared to short-term forecasting. One of the projects scientific objectives is to evaluate statistically the relative merits of the high-resolution atmospheric models and larger size ensembles atmospheric models at lower resolutions to drive hydrological models in view of producing probabilistic flood forecasts.

More information on the project can be found on the PREVIEW website and the ECMWF project website.

Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (FRMRC)

left project 10/2006

This interdisciplinary research Consortium focuses on some of the more recently identified strategic research investigating the prediction and management of flood risk and is the primary UK academic response to this challenge. It has been formulated to address key issues in flood science and engineering and the portfolio of research includes the short-term delivery of tools and techniques to support more accurate flood forecasting and warning, improvements to flood management infrastructure and reduction of flood risk to people, property and the environment. A particular feature of the 2nd phase is the concerted effort to focus on coastal and urban flooding. In addition, the Consortium continues to provide internationally leading research in the area of Land Use Management in the context of the generation of floods during extreme rainfall.

More information can be found on the FRMRC website.

European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS)

project completed 12/2002

The EFFS project aims at developing a prototype of an European flood forecasting system for 4-10 days in advance. This system provides daily information on potential floods for large rivers such as the rivers Rhine and Oder as well as flash floods in small basins. This flood forecasting system can be used as a pre-warning system to water-authorities that already have a 0-3 day forecasting system. The system can also provide flood warnings for catchments that at present do not have a forecasting system (Eastern-European countries). The framework of the system will allow incorporation of both detailed models for specific basins as well as a broad scale model for entire Europe. Once designed, the prototype will be tested and evaluated for several months. Together with end-users, channels to disseminate the forecasts and their uncertainties will be developed. The main objectives of this project are:

• To take advantage of currently available Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (4 - 10 days) to produce reliable flood warnings beyond the current flood warning period of approximately 3 days.
  
• To design a Medium-Range Flood Forecasting System for Europe that will produce flood warnings on the basis of the Medium Range Weather Forecasts.
  
• To produce flood forecasts in regions where at present no flood forecasts are made on the basis of the newly developed system.