Conference Presentations (selection)

(1) Pozzi, W.; A.   de Roo; J.   Vogt; R. G.  Lawford; F.   Pappenberger; R. R.  Heim; R.   Stefanski, Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Global Drought Monitor Portal: Adding Capabilities for Forecasting Hydrological Extremes and Early Warning Networking; (2) F.   Pappenberger; E. M.  Stephens; J.   Thielen; P.   Salomon; D.   Demeritt; S.    van Andel; F.   Wetterhall; L.   Alfieri, Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 5-9 December 2011

Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., Jan van Andel, Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L, Visualsing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perception of best practice in uncertainty communication, Floods in 3D: Processes, patterns and Predictions, EGU 2011 Leonardo Conference, Bratislava, Slovakia, 23-25 November 2011

Pappenberger F., (i) Forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: Curse or blessing? (ii) Squaring the Circle: The hydro-meteorological forecast chain (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture), EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 3. April - 8 April 2011

(1) Pappenberger, F., The (ir)relevance of improvements in meteorological forecasts for hydrology [abstract]; (2) Thielen, J.,Pappenberger, F., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Burek, P.The state of the art of flood forecasting – the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System [abstract]; (3) Thielen, J., Schaake, J., Pailloux, J., Pappenberger, F.; Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS) [abstract]. 10th EMS Annual Meeting, 8th European Conference on Applied Climatology (ECAC), Zuerich, Switzerland, 13-17 September, 2010

Balsamo G., Pappenberger F., and others, Modelling and data assimilation at ECMWF in support to land surface international projects: Lesson learnt from GSWP-2+ERA40 and perspectives offered by new reanalyses, 2nd International Conference on Hydrology delivers Earth System Science to Society, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan, 22-25 June 2010 [abstract]

Pappenberger F., Knowledge Exchange Visit to China funded by the NEWS project, Presentations: Hydrological Ensemble Predictions (Hohai University, Nanjing), The role of hydrology in NWPs (Applied Hydrometeorological Institute, Nanjing), HEPS and ECMWF (Huai River Basin Meteorological Forecasting Centre), Post-processing of ECMWF forecasts (Applied Meteorological Division, CMA), March 17. – 25., 2010

Thiemig, V. , Pappenberger, F., de Roo, A., Thielen, J. Early Flood Warning for African river basins, International Symposium on Geo-information for Disaster Management (Gi4DM), Remote Sensing And Geo-Information For Environmental Emergencies, Torino Italy, February 2-4, 2010 [abstract]

J. Thielen, J, Salamon, P.Bogner, K., Younis, J., Pappenberger, F., Kalas, M., de Roo, A., Valuable Uncertainty - the success story of EFAS by probabilistic flood forecasting in the Elbe and Danube, 38th IAD Conference, Large River Basins – Danube meets Elbe, Challenges – Strategies – Solutions, 22–25 June 2010, Dresden, Germany [abstract]

Pappenberger F., Ensemble forecasting and its implication for Hydrology, NERC FREE (Flood Risk from Extreme Events) Ensemble Workshop, Reading, 23-24 September 2009

Pappenberger, F., River rooting models to support NWP verification, ECMWF/GLASS Workshop on Land Surface Modelling, Data Assimilation and the implications for predictability, Reading, 9-12 November 2009

Bao, H., Thielen, J., Pappenberger F., The comparison of the different inputs and outputs of hydrological prediction system, HEPEX – COST731 workshop on post-processing – Toulouse, 15-18 June 2009

Pappenberger, F., Buizza, R., Hagedorn, R., ECMWF supporting hydrological forecasting, HEPEX – COST731 workshop on post-processing, Toulouse, 15-18 June 2009

Pappenberger, F., Visualising and communicating probabilistic results in National flood forecasting centres - A global review, The European Flood Alert System (EFAS): 4th annual user meeting, ECMWF, Reading, 29 to 30 January 2009

2008

Pappenberger, F., 2008, Ensemble Flood Forecasting, FEWS user meeting, DELTARES, Delft, The Netherlands, 16th-17 th.09 2008

Pappenberger, F. , 2008, Calibration of flood risk models with remotely sensed data, Remote Sensing in Hydrology, City of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, 13 th November 2008 (not attended due to illness)

Cloke, HL, Pappenberger, F., 2008, Post-processing of EPS for hydrological applications, HEPEX Meeting on uncertainty post processing, DELTARES, Delft, The Netherlands, 23 th -25 th June 2008

Pappenberger, F., Cloke, HL, 2008, The advantage of uncertainty in flood forecasting, Flood Forecasting in the Danube, Ungarisches Weissenburg, Hungary, 18 th -21 st June 2008

Pappenberger, F. , 2008, Hydrological Forecasts, Visit of CMA delegation to ECMWF, Reading, UK, 24 th-25 th April 2008

Pappenberger, F. , Cloke HL, 2008, The use of multiple NWPs in hydrological modelling, Modelling Floods and Droughts uncertainty for Water Management Resources, UNESCO FRIEND workshop, Prague, Czech Republic, 14 th-15 th March 2008

2007

Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Pappenberger, F., 2007, Application of Ensembles in Flood Forecasting, ECMWF workshop on Ensemble Predictions, Reading, UK, 7 th - 9 th November, 2007

Pappenberger F. , 2007, Evaluating the Predictive Uncertainty of Two Spatially Distributed Fields (Flood Inundation and Precipitation) Under Observational Uncertainty, AGU Fall Meeting, Eos Trans. AGU, 87 (52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H43I-03

Pappenberger, F. and Buizza R., 2007, Comparison of catchment and grid based model evaluation of precipitation for hydrological applications on the example of the July/August 2002 flood in the Danube, 3 rd HEPEX Workshop, Stresa, Italy, 27-29th June 2007

2006

Pappenberger, F., 2006, Cascading Uncertainty in flood forecasting, CHR workshop on ensemble predictions, Bern, Switzerland, 30/31 March 2006

2005

Pappenberger, F. , 2005, Uncertainty in Modelling Flood Inundation, Workshop on Catchment hydrology - what do we (need to) know?, Stockholm, 26 thAugust

A.   Weerts; R.   Westerhoff; V.   Levizzani; F.   Pappenberger; A.   de Roo; R. d.  Lange; W.   Wagner; M. F.  Bierkens; M.   Ceran; S.   Sinclair; G.   Miguez-Macho; E.   Langius, 2011, FP7 GLOWASIS – A new collaborative project aimed at pre-validation of a GMES Global Water Scarcity Information Service, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 5-9 December 2011

Balsamo, G. Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Dutra, E., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Manrique-Sunen, A. Viterbo, P.and van den Hurk, B., Land-surface modelling advanced on the representation of the Global Water Cycle in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System, WCRP OSC Climate Research in Service to Society, 24-28 October 2011, Denver, CO, USA [pdf]

Alfieri, L., de Roo, A., Burek, P., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Dutra, E. and Pappenberger, F. The Global Flood Awareness System, GEO (Eighth Plenary Session of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO-VIII), Istanbul, 16-17 November 2011 [pdf]

Pappenberger et al., (i) Forecasting river levels during flash floods using Data Based Mechanistic models, online data assimilation and meteorological forecasts; (ii) Evaluation of Precipitation Products for an Operational Pan-African Flood Forecasting System; (iii) Recent Advances and case studies in medium range flood forecasting: A follow on review; (iv) Combining hydrological multi-model ensemble forecasts; (v) On assimilating meteorological and hydrological data to improve hydrological forecasts generated using meteorological predictions EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 3. April - 8 April 2011

Schumann, G. J-P. , Neal, J. C. , Mason, D. C. , and Bates, P. D., Pappenberger, F. , Global scale simulation of floodplain inundation with low resolution space-borne data and coarse scale modelling, EGU Leonardo Da Vinci conference 2010, 10-12 November, Luxembourg.

Buizza R., Pappenberger F., and others, 2010, Development of the Ensemble Prediction System, ECMWF Users Meeting, Reading, 9-11 June 2010

Pappenberger F., et al. 2010, Posters and Presentations: (i) Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?; (ii) Application of a global probabilistic hydrologic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin; (iii) Skill comparison of probabilistic water level forecasts based on different ensemble weather prediction products; (iv) Wavelet based error correction and predictive uncertainty of a hydrological forecasting system; (v) Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system; Visualising interactive flood risk maps in a dynamic Geobrowser; (vi) Ensemble flood forecasting: A review; (vii) Application of a developed atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by ensemble weather predictions to Chinese watershed; (viii)) Ensemble Flood Forecasting in Africa: A Feasibility Study in the Juba-Shabelle River Basin; (iix) Uncertainty assessment of early flood warning driven by the TIGGE ensemble weather predictions; (ix) Global scale water stages from space imagery to support global flood forecasting; (x) The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System; A global land surface hydrology for the last 20-years; (xi) Can precipitation modelled from Regional Climate Models really be used in studies of climate change impacts on flooding?; (xii) Statistical and dynamical downscaling of GCM output to estimate future flood hazards for the Upper Severn catchment in UK; (xiii) Reduction Continuous Rank Probability Score for Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System; (xiv) Uncertainty analysis of the modelling chain from GCM to flood inundation, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 2. May - 7 May 2010

Freer, J.E., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Wilson, M., McGregor, G., 2010, Climate change ensembles driving modelling cascades with uncertainty analysis to quantify the resultant impacts on flood risk. Is this currently feasible?, HydroPredict'2010, 2nd International Interdisciplinary Conference on Predictions for Hydrology, Ecology, and Water Resources Management: Changes and Hazards caused by Direct Human Interventions and Climate Change, Prague, Czec Republic, 20-23 December 2010 [abstract]

Schumann, G., Pappenberger, F., Mason, D., Matgen, P., Verhoest, N., Vernieuwe, H., De Baets, B. Global scale water stages from SAR imagery (GlosSARi) to support global flood forecasting, British Hydrological Societty, Third International Symposium at the University of Newcastle, 19-23 July 2010 [abstract]

Cloke, H., He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Freer, J., Pappenberger F.,Wilson, M.D., McGregor, G., Climate impacts on flood inundation: probabilistic projections using ENSEMBLES and UKCP09, AGU General Assembly, San Fransisco, 14.-18. September 2009

He, Y., Manful, D.Y., Cloke, H., Wetterhall, F., Li, Z., Bao, H., Pappenberger, F., Wesner, S., Schubert, L., Yang, L., Y., Hu, Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system, AGU General Assembly, San Fransisco, 14.-18. September 2009

A. de Roo, J. Thielen, P. Salamon, F. Pappenberger, K. Bogner, M. del Medico, S. Nobert, H. Cloke, and others, Quality Control and Validation of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), International workshop for geoinformation on crisis management, Ispra, Italy, 23.November - 24. November 2009 [short paper]

Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., 2009, Challenges in communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts in operational flood risk management, Departmental Seminar, Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK, 28. October 2009

G. Balsamo, E. Dutra, F. Pappenberger, P. Viterbo, and B. van den Hurk, 2009, A revised land hydrology in the ECMWF model: A step towards water fluxes prediction in a fully-closed water cycle, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

F. Pappenberger, GP Balsamo, and HL Cloke, 2009, Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

Y. He, F. Wetterhall, H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, M. Wilson, J. Freer, and G. McGregor, 2009, Probabilistic flood warning using grand ensemble weather forecasts, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

B. Trinh and F. Pappenberger, 2009, The Impact Of Calibration and Reforecasts of Ensemble Prediction System of Inputs on a Flood Forecast System,, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

F Pappenberger, 2009, The skill of probabilistic precipitation forecasts under observational uncertainties within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework for hydrological applications, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

F Wetterhall, Y He, H Cloke, F. Pappenberger, J Freer, M Wilson, and G McGregor, 2009, Evaluation of high intensity precipitation from 16 Regional climate models over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Regions of England, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

F. Pappenberger, Ad de Roo, Roberto Buizza, Katalin Bodis, and Vera Thiemig, 2009, Early Flood Warning in Africa: Results of a Feasibility study in the JUBA, SHABELLE and ZAMBEZI, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

J. Thielen-del Pozo, F. Pappenberger, K. Bogner, M. Kalas, and A. de Roo, 2009, Seamless Flood Forecasting based on monthly, medium-range and short range ensemble prediction systems, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

F Wetterhall, Y He, J Freer, H Cloke, F Pappenberger, M Wilson, and G McGregor, 2009, A cascaded uncertainty framework for cloud-to-catchment flood inundation modelling: Project development and outlook, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

F Wetterhall, F. Pappenberger, H Cloke, G McGregor, J Freer, Y He, and M Wilson, 2009, A full sensitivity analysis of a the analogue downscaling method of precipitation for use in climate change impact studies, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

Y. He, H. Cloke, Z. Li, F. Wetterhall, and F. Pappenberger, 2009, Novel early flood warning in the Huaihe River basin in east-central China using the TIGGE database, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 19. April - 24 April 2009

2008

Ramos, M.-H., Thielen, J. and Pappenberger, F., 2008, Using weather ensembles for operational flood forecasting and early warning, Previsions Hydrometeorologiques, Lyon, France, 18-19 th November, 2008

2007

Pappenberger, F ., Beven, K. Harvey, H., Leedal, D. and Hall J., 2007, A User Guide to the Risk and uncertainty decision tree, 3 rd HEPEX Workshop, Stresa, Italy, 27-29th June 2007,

Schumann, G; Matgen, P; Pappenberger, F; Cutler, M; Black, A; Hoffmann, L; Pfister, L, Reducing uncertainties in flood modelling using (uncertain) remotely sensed water stages, EGU General Assembly, 2007

Weichel, T.; Pappenberger, F.; Haase, D.; Schulz, K., 2007, Integration of on-site land use changes in the flood inundation modelling concept of an analysis framework, EGU General Assembly, 2007

2006

Kiczko, A., Pappenberger F. and Romanowicz, R.J. 2006, Flood risk analysis of the Warsaw reach of the Vistula River, ERB 2006: Uncertainties in the 'monitoring-conceptualisation-modelling' sequence of catchment research, Luxembourg, September 2006 

Pappenberger, F ; Harvey, H; Beven, K; Hall, J, 2006, Decision tree for choosing an uncertainty analysis methodology: a Wiki experiment, EGU General Assembly, Nice, France

Pappenberger, F ; Beven, K; Frodsham, K; Matgen, P; Romanowicz, R, 2006, Fusion of flood hazard and risk in model calibration, EGU General Assembly, Nice, France

Romanowicz, R.J.; Pappenberger, F.; Beven, K.J., 2006, Flood risk estimation using stochastic equivalents to distributed flood warning system, EGU General Assembly, Nice, France

Freer, J.E.; Beven, K.J.; Smith, P.J.; Dean, S.; Krueger, T.; Pappenberger, F., 2006, Exploring, quantifying and incorporating observational uncertainties into the evaluation of environmental model predictions, EGU General Assembly, Nice, France

Ramos, M-H.; Thielen, J.; Bartholmes, J.; de Roo, A.; Pappenberger, F.; Cloke, H.; Demeritt, D., 2006, Communication of uncertainty in flood forecasting and warning to end users: case study on the European flood alert system, EGU General Assembly, Nice, France

Matgen P., Pappenberger F., Schumann G., Pfister L., 2006, Integrating remote sensing observations with operational flood forecasting systems, ASPRS 2006 Annual Conference, 1 st – 5 th May, Reno, Nevada, USA

Thielen-del Pozo, J., Ramos, M.H., Bartholmes, J., Gouweleeuw, B., Pappenberger, F., Franchello, G.F., v.d.v Knijff, J., and de Roo, A. : Making use of flood ensemble prediction system in the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), 2 nd HEPEX workshop, Boulder Colorado

2005

Pappenberger, F. , 2005, Forecasting uncertainty in Flood Inundation Models, Contributions describing methodologies for quantifying uncertainty in hydrological forecasts models, COST 731, Meeting, Report 012005 of Working Group 2

Pappenberger, F. , Frodsham, K., Matgen, P., Beven, K.J., 2005, Spatially distributed model calibration of flood inundation guided by consequences such as loss of property, AGU Fall Meeting, San Fransisco , USA

Beven, K.J, Pappenberger, F., Freer, J., 2005, Communicating Uncertainty as Multiple Competing Hypotheses, AGU Fall Meeting, San Fransisco , USA

Schumann G., Henry, J.-B., Hoffmann, L., Pfister L., Matgen P., Pappenberger, F., 2005, Demonstrating the high potential of remote sensing in hydraulic modelling and flood risk management, RSPSoc 2005, Measuring, Mapping and Managing a Hazardous World, Portsmouth, UK , 6 th-9 th September

Pappenberger, F. , Freer, J., Beven, K., Romanowicz, R., 2005, Realigning the focus of hydrological modelling, RGS-IBG Annual International Conference 2005 , London 31 st August – 2 nd September

Pappenberger, F. , Ratto, M., Romanowicz, R., Matgen, P., Beven, K., Pfister, L. 2005, Temporal changes in parameter sensitivity of a one-dimensional floo inundation model, VIIth IAHS Scientific Assembly , Foz do Iguaçu (Brazil), 3-9 April

Pappenberger, F. , 2005, Disillusioned visions for hydrological and hydraulic modelling at my retirement age beyond (in?) 2020, VIIth IAHS Scientific Assembly, Foz do Iguaçu (Brazil), 3-9 April

Pappenberger, F. ,Matgen, P., Beven, K.,2005, Influence of boundary conditions and structural uncertainty on flood inundation predictions, Slovak – U.K. young scientists workshop ”Extreme hydrologic phenomena – droughts and floods, methods their assessment and modelling.”, Bratislava, Slovak Republi

2004

Pappenberger, F ., Matgen, P., Beven, K.J., Henry, J.-B.F., Pfister, L. and de Fraipont, P., 2004. The influence of rating curve uncertainty on flood inundation predictions, Flood Risk Assessment, Bath, 7th-8th September 2004

Cloke, H., Thielen, J., de Roo, A., Gouweleeuw, B., Pappenberger, F., van der Knijff, J. and Franchello, G. 2004, Evaluation of the Meteorological Inputs to the European Flood Alert System, Flood Risk Assessment, Bath, 7th-8th September 2004

Pappenberger, F. , Matgen, P., Beven, K.J., Henry, J.-B.F., Pfister, L. and de Fraipont, P., 2004. The influence of rating curve uncertainty on flood inundation predictions, AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco

Matgen P., Henry J. B., Pappenberger F., Fraipont P., Hoffmann L., Pfister L, 2004 Uncertainty in Calibrating Flood Propagation Models with Flood Boundaries Derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar Imagery, Geo-Imagery Bridging Continents, XXth ISPRS Congress, 12-23 July 2004 Istanbul, Turkey

Matgen P., Henry J.B, Pappenberger F., Pfister L., de Fraipont P., 2004, ASAR derived flood maps for flood propagation model calibration, ERS ENVISAT Symposium, Salzburg (A), 6-10 Sept.

2003

Pappenberger, F ., Beven, K., Horritt, M. and Bates, P., 2003. Comparison of the uncertainty in ISIS and HEC-RAS within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework conditioned on historical data, EGS XXVII General Assembly, Nice, France

Pappenberger, F. and Beven, K. 2003, Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation is a methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation for estimating the predictive uncertainty associated with models, Models and Methods Workshop, 28th-29th April 2003, University of Newcastle