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Home > Services > Dissemination > 3.1 > Meteorological Bulletin M3.1 > VarEPS Monthly Forecasting System > 
 Monthly Forecast Weekly Means  Monthly Forecast Anomaly weekly means  
   

Monthly Forecast Ensemble means and standard deviation

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Introduction
Monthly forecast dissemination products
Monthly forecast dissemination requirements
GRIB section 1 definition for Monthly Forecast data
Monthly forecast raw data
Monthly Forecast Weekly Means
Monthly Forecast Ensemble means and standard deviation
Monthly Forecast Anomaly weekly means
Monthly Forecast Anomaly Probability products
Transmission of Monthly Forecast products
 
 

Monthly for Ensemble means and standard deviations are generated for data streams ENFO and ENHS and only for a limited number of fields, see the table bellow. Data types used are TYPE=EM (ensemble mean) and TYPE=ES (ensemble standard deviation).

 

It is important to note, that for the hindcast data there is no date associated to the MARS language request (set to DATE=OFF), just a reference date (REFDATE). For the hindcast, the ensemble mean represents the mean over the 5-member ensemble for each year of the hindcast set associated to the reference date. Since the hindcast covers 12 years, this represents the ensemble mean (or standard deviation) over 60 members.

 

    • Table 10.6 Parameter list for monthly weekly means for STREAM=ENFO USE=MONTHLY and
    • TYPE=EM and ES

    FIELD CODE

    MARS ABBREV.

    FIELD NAME

    UNITS

    NO. OF BITS/VAL.

    1

    STRF

    Stream function

    m2 s-1

    16

    2

    VPOT

    Velocity potential

    m2 s-1

    16

    121

    MX2T6

    Max. temp at 2m since the last 6 hours.

    K

    12

    122

    MN2T6

    Min. temp at 2m since the last 6 hours

    K

    12

    129

    Z

    Geopotential

    m2s-2

    16

    130

    T

    Temperature

    K

    12

    131

    U

    U-velocity

    m/s

    12

    132

    V

    V-velocity

    m/s

    12

    139

    STL1

    Soil Temperature Level 1

    K

    12

    144

    SF

    Snow fall

    m

    16

    151

    MSL

    Mean sea level pressure

    Pa

    12

    164

    TCC

    Total cloud cover

    (0-1)

    8

    165

    10U

    10 metre U

    m/s

    12

    166

    10V

    10 metre V

    m/s

    12

    167

    2T

    2 metre temperature

    K

    12

    189

    SUND

    Sunshine duration

    s

    16

    201

     

    MX2T

     

    Max. temp. at 2m since prev. post-processing

    K

     

    12

     

    202

     

    MN2T

     

    Min. temp. at 2m since prev. post-processing

    K

     

    12

     

    228

    TP

    Total precipitation

    m

    16

    Monthly forecast Ensemble means and standard deviation requirements

    Two types of data are available for ensemble monthly means, TYPE=EM and ES.

     

    The following command language parameters are specific for the Monthly Forecast Ensemble means and standard deviation requirements. Other parameters are listed under the 11.3 above.

     

    STREAM

     

    =

     

    ENSEMBLE FORECAST

    ENSEMBLE FORECAST HINCASTS

    [EF]

    [ENFH]

    TYPE

     

    =

     

    ENSEMBLE MEAN

    ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATION

    [EM]

    [ES]

    DATE

     

    =

     

    ALL

    OFF for STREAM=ENFH and TYPE=EM/ES

    NUMBER

    =

    OFF for TYPE=EM/ES

    STEP

     

     

     

     

    =

     

     

     

     

    96-264

    264-432

    432-600

    600-768

    LEVELIST

     

     

     

    =

     

     

     

    OFF

    *

    (1000/925/850/700/500/400/300/200/100/50/10)

    NB ALL is not permitted;




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