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Home > Services > Dissemination > 3.1 > Meteorological Bulletin M3.1 > Wave Ensemble Forecast > 
 Control, Perturbed and Calibration/Validation forecast products  Transmission of Products  
   

Event Probability products

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Control, Perturbed and Calibration/Validation forecast products
Event Probability products
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Event probability products provide the probabilities of the occurrence of weather events at each grid point. The probabilities are calculated on the basis that each ensemble member is equally likely. Probability fields for wave height (with thresholds of 2,4,6,8 m) and mean period (with thresholds of 8,10,12,15 seconds) are defined in the ECMWF local table 2 version 131 (Event probabilities) and are as in Table 7.2:

 

Table 7.2 Wave EPS Event Probability Products

(ECMWF Local Code Table 2, parameter table, Version Number 131)

FIELD CODE

MARS ABBREV.

FIELD NAME

UNITS

NO. OF BITS/VAL.

74

SWHG2

Significant wave height of at least 2 m

%

8

75

SWHG4

Significant wave height of at least 4 m

%

8

76

SWHG6

Significant wave height of at least 6 m

%

8

77

SWHG8

Significant wave height of at least 8 m

%

8

78

MWPG8

Mean wave period of at least 8 s

%

8

79

MWPG10

Mean wave period of at least 10 s

%

8

80

MWPG12

Mean wave period of at least 12 s

%

8

81

MWPG15

Mean wave period of at least 15 s

%

8

Event Probability requirements

The following command language parameters are specific for the event probability requirements. Other DIS parameters are listed under the 7.2 above.

 

 

TYPE

=

EVENT PROBABILITY

[EP]

NUMBER

=

OFF

STEP

 

 

 

=

 

 

 

* (hours)

 

12/to/360/by/12 and

120-168,168-240,120-240 and 240-360

PARAM

 

 

 

=

 

 

 

Field name abbreviation

*

NB ALL is not permitted.

Available parameters are listed in the Table 7.2.




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