Predictability and ensemble forecasting: publications

Papers on ensemble prediction

The predictability research at ECMWF and the development of the ensemble prediction system is documented in a series of scientific papers and technical memoranda (some will be available online)

Barkmeijer, J, Buizza, R., & Palmer, T. N., 1999: 3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2333-2351.

Barkmeijer, J., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N., Puri, K., & Mahfouf, J.-F., 2001: Tropical singular vectors computed with linearized diabatic physics. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 685-708.

Buizza, R., & Palmer, T. N., 1998: Impact of ensemble size on the skill and the potential skill of an ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 9, 2503-2518.

Buizza, R., Petroliagis, T., Palmer, T. N., Barkmeijer, J., Hamrud, M., Hollingsworth, A., Simmons, A., & Wedi, N., 1998: Impact of model resolution and ensemble size on the performance of an ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 124, 1935-1960.

Buizza, R., Miller, M., & Palmer, T. N., 1999: Stochastic simulation of model uncertainties. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887-2908.

Buizza, R., Richardson, D. S., & Palmer, T. N., 2002: Global high-resolution (80-km) ensemble prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., submitted.

Mullen, S., & Buizza, R., 2001: The Impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted.

Puri, K., Barkmeijer, J. & Palmer, T. N., 1999: Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 127, 709-731.

Richardson, D. S., 2000: Skill and economic value of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 649-668.

Richardson, D. S., 2001: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2473-2489.