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Home > Research > Predictability > Projects > ModeI perturbations >     
   

EPS model perturbations

 
 

To take into account the effect of uncertainties in the model formulation, each forecast is made using slightly different model equations. The current implementation is a first attempt to simulate random model errors due to parametrized physical processes. It is assumed that these random errors are coherent between the various parametrization modules and over certain space and time scales. The scheme assumes that larger tendencies from the parametrization will have a larger random error component.


 

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