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The initial conditions for the EPS are designed to represent the uncertainties
inherent in the operational analysis. They are created by adding to the
operational ECMWF analysis perturbations which produce the fastest energy
growth during the first two days of the forecast period, defined using
the singular vector technique.
Tropical initial perturbations
On the 21st of January 2002 tropical perturbations defined by singular
vectors targeted to maximize total-energy inside an area centered on tropical
storms were added to the operational EPS. The tropical singular vector
calculation takes account of the physical processes which may contribute
significantly to perturbation growth in tropical areas
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