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11. ERA forecasts
Figure 11 The day when the forecast skill (anomaly correlation) drops to 95% (blue)
and 60% (red) for the period 1979 to 1993 (a 365 moving average has been
applied): ERA forecasts (top panel) and
operational forecasts from the same initial time (bottom panel).
Preliminary evaluation of the skill of the ERA forecasts indicates a relatively steady performance
through the years and a clear improvement to the corresponding old operational forecasts; the skill
equals that of operations in 1993 (figure 11 upper and lower). Locally, for example over North America or Europe,
the skill has variability, which possibly can be related to changes in climate or observing system, but
this has not been studied yet.
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