Manuscripts submitted to Tellus A

A special issue of the journal Tellus A describing results from the DEMETER project is under preparation. Below you can find a list of the manuscripts submitted for review in April 2004. Some of the manuscripts can be downloaded in pdf format for the contributors of the special issue. If you don't have the password to access the manuscripts, you can still contact the corresponding author using the address provided.

Submitted papers

Multi-model forecasting:
1. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part I: Basic concept. R. Hagedorn, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and T. N. Palmer.
2. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. Part II: Calibration and combination. F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn and T. N. Palmer.
3. Forecast assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of multi-model weather and climate predictions. D. B. Stephenson, C. A. S. Coelho, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and M. Balmaseda.
4. A new view of forecast skill: Bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts. A. Weisheimer, L. A. Smith and K. Judd.
5. A multi-model synthetic superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts. W. T. Yun, L. Stefanova, A. K. Mitra, T. S. V. Vijayakumar, W. Dewar and T. N. Krishnamurti.
6. Winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic and European region in ERA40 reanalysis and DEMETER seasonal hindcasts. C. Fil and L. Dubus.

Sensitivity analyses:

7. Actual and potential skill of seasonal predictions using the CNRM contribution to DEMETER: coupled versus uncoupled model. J. F.Guérémy, M. Déqué, A. Braun and J.P. Piedelièvre.
8. A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction General Circulation Model. R. J. Graham, M. Gordon, P.J. Mclean, S. Ineson, M. Huddleston, M.K. Davey, A. Brookshaw and R. Barnes.
9. A coupled method for initialising ENSO forecasts using SST data. N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus and U. Schulzweida.
10. Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on ENSO seasonal forecasts. S. Gualdi, A. Alessandri and A. Navarra.
11. Ensembles of global ocean analyses for seasonal climate prediction: impact of temperature assimilation. P. Rogel, A. Weaver, N. Daget, E. Machu and S. Ricci.
12. Seasonal forecast of tropical climate with coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs: On the respective role of the atmosphere and the ocean components in the drift of the surface temperature error. A. Lazar, A. Vintzileos, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, P. Rogel and P. Delecluse

Downscaling:

13. A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions. H. Feddersen and U. Andersen.
14. Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts. E. Díez, C. Primo, J. A. García-Moya, J. M. Gutiérrez and B. Orfila.
15. Downscaling of DEMETER winter seasonal hindcasts over Northern Italy. V. Pavan, S. Marchesi, A. Morgillo, C. Cacciamani and F. J. Doblas-Reyes.
16. Analysis and downscaling multi-model seasonal forecasts in Peru using self-organizing maps. J. M. Gutiérrez, R. Cano, A. S. Cofiño and C. Primo.
17. Operational predictability of monthly average maximum temperature over the Iberian Peninsula using DEMETER simulations and downscaling. M. D. Frías, J. Fernández, J. Sáenz and C. Rodríguez-Puebla.

User applications:

18. A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model. A. P. Morse, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. B. Hoshen, R. Hagedorn and T. N. Palmer.
19. Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe. P. Cantelaube and J.-M. Terres.
20. Evaluation of downscaled DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal hindcasts in a Northern Italy location by means of a model of wheat growth and soil water balance. V. Marletto, F. Zinoni, L. Criscuolo, G. Fontana, S. Marchesi, A. Morgillo, M. R. M. Van Soetendael, E. Ceotto and U. Andersen.
21. Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles. A. J. Challinor, J. M. Slingo, T. R. Wheeler and F. J. Doblas-Reyes.