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The most transparent way to illustrate the
performance and characteristics of a probabilistic forecast system
is the reliability diagram, where the x-axis is the predicted
probability and the y-axis the frequency with which the forecasts
verify. It serves both as a way to validate the system and to
verify its forecasts (see
Figure 81).
Figure
81: Schematic explanation of the reliability
diagram. Out of thirty 20% probability forecasts, the predicted
event should verify six times, i.e. in 20% of the time, not more,
not less.
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