|
|
The extraction of extreme weather-related
information from the EPS is not always straightforward. For
example, the probabilities themselves do not reveal whether a
certain value is unusual or even extreme. A 30% probability of
>20 mm/6 hours rainfall in July would not be
“extreme” in New Delhi, but would be in Cairo. The
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) has been developed to alert
forecasters to anomalous or extreme events by relating the forecast
probabilities to the climatological probabilities. Whereas probabilities refer to the
chance that a certain threshold will be exceeded, the EFI is an
integral measure over all thresholds (Lalaurette, 2003;
Zsótér, 2006).
|
