Some characteristics of deterministic NWP

• Forecast error growth
• Downstream spread of influence
• The relation between scale and predictive skill
• Forecast “jumpiness”
• Flip-flopping forecasts
• Jumpiness and forecast skill
• Forecast trends cannot be extrapolated
• Other state-of-the-art deterministic models

Output from NWP models does not behave in a simple or regular way due to the non-linear nature of the forecast system.