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What has been said so far applies, in
principle, to all major state-of-the-art deterministic NWP models,
spectral- or grid-point-based, global or limited area, hydrostatic
or non-hydrostatic. The differences in their average forecast
quality are less significant than the daily variability of the
scores. Hence, the best NWP model, on average, is not
necessarily the best on a particular day. An NWP model that has
recently performed significantly better (or worse) than other
models (of about the same average skill), is not likely to continue
to do so.
However, as
mentioned in Section 2.6.2
and
further discussed in Section 4.2, it is as
difficult to determine the “model of the day” from one
of several NWP model forecasts as it is from consecutive forecasts
from the same model. Forecasters are advised to treat forecasts
from different NWP models as a “multi-model ensemble”
whose members differ slightly in their initial conditions and model
characteristics. The better forecasters learn to handle the
deterministic output in this way, the better they will be able to
manage the ensemble forecasts, where these problems are more
consistently addressed (see Chapter
4).
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