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User Guide to ECMWF Forecast Products > Appendix A Some statistical concepts to facilitate the use and interpretation of deterministic medium-range forecasts > 
Introduction The mean error  
   

Forecast validation

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Introduction
Forecast validation
Forecast verification
Interpretation of verification statistics
Graphical representation
The usefulness of statistical know-how
Utility verification
Practical examples
An introduction to probabilistic weather forecasting
 
 

A forecast system that perfectly simulates the behaviour of the atmosphere has the same degree of variability as the atmosphere with no systematic errors.




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Introduction The mean error  
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