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User Guide to ECMWF Forecast Products > 
Tubing How can trust in medium-range forecasts be increased?  
   

Epilogue: how to increase the public’s trust in medium-range weather forecasts

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Introduction
The ECMWF forecasting and assimilation system
The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
Recommendations on categorical and probabilistic medium-range forecasting
Derived products from the EPS
Epilogue: how to increase the public’s trust in medium-range weather forecasts
Appendix A Some statistical concepts to facilitate the use and interpretation of deterministic medium-range forecasts
Appendix B Some statistical concepts to facilitate the use and interpretation of ensemble forecasts
References and further literature
 
 

At the time when ECMWF was founded, it was estimated that medium-range weather forecasts would lead to large economic gains for society. Currently, forecasts are, on average, synoptically useful for up to a week or more, with extreme weather events generally forecast three to four days in advance.  Nevertheless, medium-range forecast information is not always used to its full potential; when decisions on the protective action to be taken against extreme weather are made, medium-range forecasts too often serve only as background information.




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