Appendix B Some statistical concepts to facilitate the use and interpretation of ensemble forecasts

• Introduction
• The reliability diagram
• Rank histogram (Talagrand diagram)
• Verification measures
• The relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram
• Calibration of probabilities
• Statistical post-processing – model output statistics

This chapter discusses only the most commonly used probabilistic validation and verification methods. For a full presentation the reader is referred to Nurmi (2003).