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Home > Products > Catalogue > Products from the Monthly Forecasting System>  
 

Set VI: Products from the Monthly Forecasting System


 
 

The following sub-sets are available from the Monthly Forecasting System on both Monday and Thursday runs:

See practical examples of tariffs here

VI-i: Weekly means of ensemble means (including hindcast products)

The following fields are weekly means computed from data of the daily individual forecast runs (section VI-v) and averaged over all ensemble members. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

1.1 Parameters

VI-i-a) Single level parameters

  • 10 metre U-velocity (10U)
  • 10 metre V-velocity (10V)
  • 2 metre dewpoint temperature (2D)
  • 2 metre temperature (2T)
  • Land/sea mask (LSM)
  • Maximum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours (MX2T6)
  • Mean sea level pressure (MSL)
  • Minimum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours (MN2T6)
  • Orography (Z)
  • Snow depth (SD)
  • Snow density (RSN)
  • Snow fall (convective + stratiform) (SF)
  • Soil temperature level 1 (STL1)
  • Sunshine duration (SUND)
  • Total cloud cover (TCC)
  • Total precipitation (TP)

If requested, the following parameters can be provided free of charge once with every forecast dissemination.

  • Land-sea mask (LSM)
  • Model orography (Z)

VI-i-b) Pressure-level parameters

  • At levels 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200 hPa:
    • Geopotential height (GH)
    • Temperature (T)
    • U-velocity (U)
    • V-velocity (V)
  • At level 200 hPa:
    • Stream function (STRF)
    • Velocity potential (VPOT)

See appendix for definition and units of the weekly mean parameters given above.

1.2 Product resolution

  • 0.5° x 0.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N160 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (T319) for upper-air fields (global area only)

1.3 Forecast ranges

  • 2 runs (Monday and Thursday), four 7-day ranges per run
    • Monday
      • 0-168
      • 168-336
      • 336-504
      • 504-672
    • Thursday
      • 96-264
      • 264-432
      • 432-600
      • 600-768

1.4 Base times

  • 00 UTC

VI-ii: Weekly mean anomalies of ensemble means

The following products correspond to the products in section VI-i with the model climate mean subtracted. The model climate is derived from hindcast statistics. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

2.1 Parameters

VI-ii-a) Single level parameters

  • 10 metre U-velocity anomaly (10UA)
  • 10 metre V-velocity anomaly (10VA)
  • 2 metre dewpoint temperature anomaly (2DA)
  • 2 metre temperature anomaly (2TA)
  • Land/sea mask (LSM)
  • Maximum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours anomaly (MX2T6A)
  • Mean sea level pressure anomaly (MSLA)
  • Minimum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours anomaly (MN2T6A)
  • Orography (Z)
  • Snow depth anomaly (SDA)
  • Snow density anomaly (RSNA)
  • Snow fall (convective + stratiform) anomalous rate of accumulation (SFARA)
  • Soil temperature anomaly level 1 (STAL1)
  • Sunshine duration anomalous rate of accumulation (SUNDARA)
  • Total cloud cover anomaly (TCCA)
  • Total precipitation anomalous rate of accumulation (TPARA)

If requested, the following parameters can be provided free of charge once with every forecast dissemination.

  • Land-sea mask (LSM)
  • Model orography (Z)

VI-ii-b) Pressure-level parameters

  • At 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200 hPa:
    • Geopotential height anomaly (GHA)
    • Temperature anomaly (TA)
    • U-velocity anomaly (UA)
    • V-velocity anomaly (VA)
  • At 200 hPa:
    • Stream function anomaly (STRFA)
    • Velocity potential anomaly (VPOTA)

See appendix for definition and units of the weekly mean parameters given above.

2.2 Product resolution

  • 0.5° x 0.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N160 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (T319) for upper-air fields (global area only)

2.3 Forecast ranges

  • 2 runs (Monday and Thursday), four 7-day ranges per run
    • Monday
      • 0-168
      • 168-336
      • 336-504
      • 504-672
    • Thursday
      • 96-264
      • 264-432
      • 432-600
      • 600-768

2.4 Base times

  • 00 UTC

VI-iii: Weekly means of individual ensemble member forecasts (including hindcast products)

The following fields are weekly means computed from data of the daily individual forecast runs (section VI-v) for the individual ensemble members. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

3.1 Parameters

VI-iii-a) Single level parameters

  • 10 metre U-velocity (10U)
  • 10 metre V-velocity (10V)
  • 2 metre dewpoint temperature (2D)
  • 2 metre temperature (2T)
  • Land/sea mask (LSM)
  • Maximum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours (MX2T6)
  • Mean sea level pressure (MSL)
  • Minimum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours (MN2T6)
  • Orography (Z)
  • Snow depth (SD)
  • Snow density (RSN)
  • Snow fall (convective + stratiform) (SF)
  • Soil temperature level 1 (STL1)
  • Sunshine duration (SUND)
  • Total cloud cover (TCC)
  • Total precipitation (TP)

If requested, the following parameters can be provided free of charge once with every forecast dissemination.

  • Land-sea mask (LSM)
  • Model orography (Z)

VI-iii-b) Pressure-level parameters

  • At 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200 hPa:
    • Geopotential height (GH)
    • Temperature (T)
    • U-velocity (U)
    • V-velocity (V)
  • At 200 hPa:
    • Stream function (STRF)
    • Velocity potential (VPOT)

See appendix for definition and units of the weekly mean parameters given above.

3.2 Product resolution

  • 0.5° x 0.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N160 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (T319) for upper-air fields (global area only)

3.3 Forecast ranges

  • 2 runs (Monday and Thursday), four 7-day ranges per run
    • Monday
      • 0-168
      • 168-336
      • 336-504
      • 504-672
    • Thursday
      • 96-264
      • 264-432
      • 432-600
      • 600-768

3.4 Base times

  • 00 UTC

VI-iv: Weekly mean anomalies of individual ensemble member forecasts

The following products correspond to the products in section VI-iii with the model climate mean subtracted. The model climate is derived from hindcast statistics. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

4.1 Parameters

VI-iv-a) Single level parameters

  • 10 metre U-velocity anomaly (10UA)
  • 10 metre V-velocity anomaly (10VA)
  • 2 metre dewpoint temperature anomaly (2DA)
  • 2 metre temperature anomaly (2TA)
  • Land/sea mask (LSM)
  • Maximum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours anomaly (MX2T6A)
  • Mean sea level pressure anomaly (MSLA)
  • Minimum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours anomaly (MN2T6A)
  • Orography (Z)
  • Snow depth anomaly (SDA)
  • Snow density anomaly (RSNA)
  • Snow fall (convective + stratiform) anomalous rate of accumulation (SFARA)
  • Soil temperature anomaly level 1 (STAL1)
  • Sunshine duration anomalous rate of accumulation (SUNDARA)
  • Total cloud cover anomaly (TCCA)
  • Total precipitation anomalous rate of accumulation (TPARA)

If requested, the following parameters can be provided free of charge once with every forecast dissemination.

  • Land-sea mask (LSM)
  • Model orography (Z)

VI-iv-b) Pressure-level parameters

  • At 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200 hPa:
    • Geopotential height anomaly (GHA)
    • Temperature anomaly (TA)
    • U-velocity anomaly (UA)
    • V-velocity anomaly (VA)
  • At 200 hPa:
    • Stream function anomaly (STRFA)
    • Velocity potential anomaly (VPOTA)

See appendix for definition and units of the weekly mean parameters given above.

4.2 Product resolution

  • 0.5° x 0.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N160 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (T319) for upper-air fields (global area only)

4.3 Forecast ranges

  • 2 runs (Monday and Thursday), four 7-day ranges per run
    • Monday
      • 0-168
      • 168-336
      • 336-504
      • 504-672
    • Thursday
      • 96-264
      • 264-432
      • 432-600
      • 600-768

4.4 Base times

  • 00 UTC

VI-v: Individual forecast runs (daily real-time and hindcast products)

The products contain values for each ensemble member of the Monthly Prediction System plus the equivalent hindcast products. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

5.1 Parameters

VI-v-a) Single level parameters (6 hourly products)

  • 10 metre U-velocity (10U)
  • 10 metre V-velocity (10V)
  • 100 metre U-velocity (100U)
  • 100 metre V-velocity (100V)
  • 2 metre dewpoint temperature (2D)
  • 2 metre temperature (2T)
  • Evaporation (E)
  • Land/sea mask (LSM)
  • Maximum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours (MX2T6)
  • Mean sea level pressure (MSL)
  • Minimum temperature at 2m in the last 6 hours (MN2T6)
  • Orography (Z)
  • Sea surface temperature (SSTK)
  • Snow depth (SD)
  • Snow density (RSN)
  • Snow fall (convective + stratiform) (SF)
  • Soil temperature level 1 (STL1)
  • Soil temperature level 2 (STL2)
  • Soil temperature level 3 (STL3)
  • Soil temperature level 4 (STL4)
  • Sunshine duration (SUND)
  • Surface pressure (SP)
  • Surface solar radiation downwards (SSRD)
  • Top thermal radiation (TTR)
  • Total cloud cover (TCC)
  • Total precipitation (TP)
  • Total sky direct solar radiation at surface (FDIR)
  • Volumetric soil water layer 1 (SWVL1)
  • Volumetric soil water layer 2 (SWVL2)
  • Volumetric soil water layer 3 (SWVL3)
  • Volumetric soil water layer 4 (SWVL4)

If requested, the following parameters can be provided free of charge once with every forecast dissemination.

  • Land-sea mask (LSM)
  • Model orography (Z)

VI-v-b) Pressure-level parameters (12 hourly products)

  • At 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200 hPa:
    • Geopotential height (GH)
    • Temperature (T)
    • U-velocity (U)
    • V-velocity (V)
  • At 200 hPa:
    • Stream function (STRF)
    • Velocity potential (VPOT)

VI-v-c) Wave model parameters (6 hourly products)

  • Significant wave height (SWH)

The wave field significant wave height is archived on a 0.5 ° x 0.5° grid and will be supplied at that resolution or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area).

5.2 Product resolution

Leg 1:
  • 0.25° x 0.25° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N320 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (T639) for upper-air fields (global area only)
Leg 2:
  • 0.5° x 0.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N160 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (T319) for upper-air fields (global area only)
Leg 3:
  • 0.5° x 0.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N160 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (T319) for upper-air fields (global area only)

5.3 Forecast time-steps

Leg 1:
  • T+0h to T+240h at 6-hour intervals for VI-v-a and VI-v-c
Leg 2:
  • T+246h to T+360h at 6-hour intervals for VI-v-a and VI-v-c
Leg 3:
  • T+366h to T+768h at 6-hour intervals for VI-v-a and VI-v-c
Leg 1:
  • T+0h to T+240h at 12-hour intervals for VI-v-b
Leg 2:
  • T+252h to T+360h at 12-hour intervals for VI-v-b
Leg 3:
  • T+372h to T+768h at 12-hour intervals for VI-v-b

5.4 Base times

  • 00 UTC

VI-vi: Probabilities (weekly products)

The fields provide the probabilities of the occurrence of weather events at each grid point. Weather events are either averaged or accumulated over a period of one week. The products are provided in GRIB code.

6.1 Parameters

VI-vi-a) Forecast probabilities (weekly averaged)

  • 2 metre temperature anomaly of at least +1K (2TAG1)
  • 2 metre temperature anomaly of at least +2K (2TAG2)
  • 2 metre temperature anomaly of at least 0K (2TAG0)
  • 2 metre temperature anomaly of at most -1K (2TALM1)
  • 2 metre temperature anomaly of at most -2K (2TALM2)

VI-vi-b) Forecast probabilities (weekly accumulated)

  • Total precipitation anomaly of at least 10mm (TPAG10)
  • Total precipitation anomaly of at least 20mm (TPAG20)

VI-vi-c) Probability distributions

  • 2 metre temperature (2T)
  • Total precipitation (TP)

The probability distributions are provided relative to the model climate with respect to terciles (above/near/below normal), quintiles and deciles.

VI-vi-d) Probability boundaries

  • 2 metre temperature (2T)
  • Total precipitation (TP)

Values of the terciles, quintiles and deciles boundaries are provided.

6.2 Product resolution

  • 0.5° x 0.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Gaussian) N160 grid (global or sub-area)

6.3 Forecast ranges

  • 2 runs (Monday and Thursday), four 7-day ranges per run
    • Monday
      • 0-168
      • 168-336
      • 336-504
      • 504-672
    • Thursday
      • 96-264
      • 264-432
      • 432-600
      • 600-768

6.4 Base times

  • 00 UTC

 

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