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Chaos and weather
prediction
January 2000
By Roberto Buizza
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts
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8 . Conclusion
The weather is a chaotic system, and numerical weather prediction is a very difficult task.
This work has demonstrated that the application of linear algebra (i.e. the use of singular vectors computed by solving an eigenvalue problem defined by the tangent forward and adjoint versions of the model) to meteorology can help in designing new ways to numerical weather prediction (Buizza 1997).
The same technique can be applied to any dynamical system, in particular to very complex systems with a large dimension. The basic idea is that there are only few, important directions of the phase-space of any system along which the most important processes occur. A successful prediction of the system time evolution should sample these directions, and describe the system evolution along them.
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07.06.2002 |
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