Recent studies have focussed at the direct
and/or indirect radiative impact of aerosols in climate simulations (Joussaume, 1990; Genthon, 1992; Boucher and Lohmann, 1995; Chylek
et al., 1995; Mitchell
et al., 1995; Lohmann and Feichter, 1997; Tegen
et al., 1997; Timmreck
et al., 1997; Cusack et al., 1998; Le
Treut et al., 1998;
Schulz et al., 1998). Since the pioneering work of Tanre et al. (1984), the ECMWF
model has included an annual mean, but geographically distributed climatology
of aerosols. The geographical distribution of the maritime, continental,
urban and desert aerosols are given in Figs. 6.1 and 6.2 , where as the vertical distribution
is illustrated in Fig. 6.3 . As discussed in Cusack
et al. (1998), the presence of these aerosols in the ECMWF model is
certainly one of the reasons why the surface downward SW radiation is less
overestimated in the ECMWF model than in other leading climate GCMs (Garratt, 1994; Garratt et al., 1998). However,
a monthly specification of the aerosol distributions or better a prognosed
aerosol loading is a possible future development for the ECMWF model.
Recent studies by Wang and Rossow (1995, 1998) and
Stubenrauch et al.
(1997) have focussed at the potentially large impact on the atmospheric
circulation linked to uncertainties in the vertical distribution of clouds
and related radiative heating/cooling rates. Similar results were also obtained
with the ECMWF model (Morcrette and Jakob, 2000). Fig.
6.4 presents the cloud overlaps that the operational radiation scheme
can handle. One-dimensional calculations are performed for different cloud
configurations often encountered in three-dimensional simulations. The first
one corresponds to a typical convective system and includes a convective
tower of fractional cover 0.15 from 820 to 290 hPa topped by stratiform
anvil of cover 0.4 and 70 hPa thick. The second case includes three layers
of stratiform cloud of cover 0.3 between 890 and 820 hPa (low-level), 640
and 545 hPa (middle-level), and 290 and 220 hPa (high-level), respectively.
The profiles of the cloud longwave, shortwave and net radiative forcing
for these two cases are presented in Fig.
6.5 , left and right panels respectively. The cloud forcing term is
simply the difference between the heating obtained for the cloudy atmosphere
minus the clear-sky heating. The different COAs are treated exactly in the
LW part and only approximately in the SW part of the radiation scheme. Therefore,
the LW MRN and MAX results are essentially the same for case 1, and the
same holds for the LW MRN and RAN results for case 2. In the SW, the agreement
on the SW forcing profiles is also very good. In the first case (see Fig. 6.5 , left panels), the anvil produces
a strong LW cooling whereas a relative heating is found in the rest of the
convective tower below. Compared to MRN/MAX, the RAN LW shows a smaller
cooling peak in the anvil, smaller heating below within the tower, and larger
warming in the clear PBL. All these features are consistent with the larger
effective cloudiness that the RAN assumption produces between any two cloudy
layers. This larger effective cloudiness (i) prevents the radiation from
the lower atmospheric layers from escaping to space, thus the heating in
the PBL, (ii) decreases the possible radiative exchanges within the tower,
thus the smaller radiative heating, and (iii) decreases the upward LW flux
at the base of the anvil, hence the smaller LW divergence in the anvil.
Similarly, a stronger SW heating is linked in RAN to the larger cloud fraction
available to screen the downward radiation and to the more diffuse character
of this radiation in the cloudy fraction of the column. Consequently a smaller
amount of SW radiation is available below the cloud base and this translates
into a relative cooling. The smaller heating of the anvil in RAN is linked
to the smaller SW flux divergence through a larger upward radiation due
to the increased reflection on the larger effective amount of lower level
clouds.
In the second case (see Fig. 6.5 , right panels), each of the three
stratiform cloud layers produces a LW cooling inside and a LW heating immediately
underneath. Differences between MAX and MRN/RAN results are consistent with
the smaller total effective cloudiness given by MAX. The cooling in the
low-level cloud is reduced in MAX because the middle- and high-level clouds
prevent the radiation at the top of the low-level cloud from escaping to
space. Similarly, the cooling in the high-level cloud is increased in MRN/RAN
because the low- and middle-level clouds prevent the warmer radiation from
the lower layers to reach the base of the high-level cloud. The smaller
total cloudiness in MAX also explains the smaller LW heating below the lowest
cloud. In the SW, the difference in heating is very small within the clouds.
The slightly larger relative cooling immediately below the clouds in MAX
comes from the larger fraction of radiation being directly transmitted,
as, in MRN/RAN, the radiation in the cloudy fraction of the column is more
diffuse and therefore more likely to be absorbed. The smaller SW heating
of the upper cloud with MRN/RAN is again linked to the increased reflection.
These one-dimensional computations show the validity of the treatment of
the different COAs in the ECMWF radiation scheme. They also show the larger
impact of a change of COA on the LW than on the SW radiative profiles.
Fig. 6.6 presents the total cloudiness
(TCC) averaged over the last three months (DJF) of the EPR simulations with
the MRN, MAX and RAN COAs. Not surprisingly, the set of MAX simulations
display the minimum total cloud cover at 0.609, followed by the MRN at 0.639,
whereas the RAN simulations have a much larger total cloud cover at 0.714.
The increase from MRN to RAN (respectively, the decrease from MRN to MAX)
is apparent over most of the globe, but is more pronounced over the sub-tropics,
particularly those of the Southern hemisphere. Are these changes simply
reflecting the different geometrical distribution of the cloud elements
on the vertical or are they linked to actual changes in the volume of the
cloud elements? A simple check whether the cloud volume is actually modified
is obtained by diagnosing the total cloud cover for all sets of simulations
and applying the operational maximum-random overlap assumption to the various
cloud elements. Fig. 6.7 presents the MRN-equivalent TCC
for the EPR experiments. The main result is that most of the change in TCC
is not reflected in the MRN-equivalent TCC, showing that a large fraction
of the signal is due to the geometrical overlapping in the radiation scheme,
and not to a real significant change in the cloud volume.
New algorithms are being tested based on
the neural network approach of Cheruy et al. (1996) and Chevallier
et al. (2000a, 2000b), or on the linearized approach proposed by Chou
and Neelin (1996), both of which introduce major savings in computer
time. They would therefore allow for more frequent and/or non spatially
sampled radiation calculations. For example, Fig. 6.13 present the bias and standard
deviation of the LW cooling rates computed by a neural network method relative
to the operational LW scheme, whereas. Figs. 6.14 and 6.15 display standard objective scores,
the anomaly correlation of the geopotential at 500 hPa (Fig.
6.14 ) and the mean error in temperature at various levels in the atmosphere
(Fig. 6.15 ). Such results
indicate that the neural network approach is potentially a viable replacement.
for traditional LW parametrizations.