Predictability, Diagnostics and Seasonal Forecasting

 

Click on the titles below to access pdf files of the lecture notes

 

"Chaos and weather prediction" by Roberto Buizza
        1. Introduction
        2. The Lorenz system
        3. Numerical weather prediction
        4. Sources of forecast error
        5. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
        6. Targeted observations
        7. Summary and future developments
        8. Conclusion
        9. Acknowledgements
        References

"Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate" by Tim Palmer
        1. Introduction
        2. The Liouville equation
        3. The probability density function of initial error
        4. Represwenting uncertainty in model formulation
        5. Eror growth in the linear and nonlinear phase
        6. Applications of singular vectors
        7. Forecasting uncertainty by ensemble predictions
        8. Verifying forecasts of uncertainty
        9. The economic value of predicting uncertainty
        10.Concluding remarks

"Systematic errors in the ECMWF Forecasting System" by Thomas Jung and Adrian Tompkins
       1. Introduction
        2. Data
        3. Results
        4. Summary and Discussion