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The EPS provides forecasters with a set of 51 possible
future scenarios, which can be combined into an average forecast
(the ensemble-mean) or into a small number of alternative forecasts
(the clusters), or they can be used to compute the probabilities of
possible future weather events.
The EPS can be used as a quantitative tool for
risk assessment in a range of commercial and humanitarian activities
that are weather-sensitive. It can be shown that the potential economic
value of the EPS can be much higher than that of a forecasting system
based only on a single deterministic forecast.
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